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February 7, 2010

Builders hope to lure back boomers

DALLAS — Baby boomer buyers fueled a big run-up in U.S. home construction and sales in the 1970s and 1980s.

Now beleaguered homebuilders say they’re hoping aging boomers, who are just entering retirement age, will once again give them robust housing sales.

“We believe this segment of the market is going to lead the housing industry toward recovery as the market turns around,” said Sharon Dworkin Bell, a senior staff vice president of the National Association of Home Builders.

The 55-plus homebuyer is being targeted by builders all over the country and was a focus of the industry’s annual conference recently in Las Vegas.

The numbers are certainly there. By 2014, a quarter of the U.S. population – more than 85 million people – will be 55 or older.

“The number of people in that age group is increasing, and there is a lot of promise out there,” builders’ association economist David Crowe said last week.

While more than 60 percent of 55-plus homeowners say they want to keep their current homes, the rest say they are interested in alternatives.

Builders anticipate that buyers in this age group will account for almost 270,000 house purchases by next year.

Even in the down market, some 55-plus buyers move and downsize.

“The good news is they usually have a lot of home equity and can get a mortgage,” Crowe said. “The bad news is they have to sell a house.”

That worked out OK for Hunter and Judy Whitney, who sold their home in Pennsylvania just before the housing market took a downturn. The couple, both in their 60s, moved into a new house in Del Webb’s Frisco Lakes development in Frisco, Texas, two years ago.

“When we decided to retire and relocate, we decided on the Dallas area,” Hunter Whitney said. “Two of our three kids and six of our eight grandkids live in the area.”

Moving closer to family is one of the top reasons 55-plus buyers move.

More than 75 percent of 55-plus buyers say they want a home in the suburbs.

But that doesn’t mean they want a big house. Surveys show older buyers are more frugal about housing needs.

“The 55-plus buyers are not interested in growing their house size,” Crowe said. “They are asking for about a 1,900 square-foot home” on average. “They’re worried about energy costs.”

Most older homebuyers surveyed are holding down their cost expectations, industry research shows.

“When we asked the consumer, ‘What are you willing to pay?’ they said $190,000,” Crowe said. “And when we asked the builders, ‘What are you building (for this market)?’ they said $287,000.

“Obviously, there’s a real big problem there.”

Indeed, builders say they are in a quandary over what kind of housing to produce for 55-plus buyers.

“The baby boomers are absolutely unpredictable,” said Andy White, a South Carolina developer who spoke to builders at their convention in Las Vegas. “If a consultant comes to you and says they know what to build, they are lying,” said White, whose company has been building developments targeted to older adults since the 1980s.

White said there are many risks for builders who might design the wrong product in the wrong place.

“Let’s give it a few years and see what happens when the leading edge of the baby boomers reaches 70 years old, which is in 2016,” he said.








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