Data signal a weak recovery

WASHINGTON — A gauge of future economic activity and a report on unemployment benefits signaled Thursday that the recovery likely will remain weak in the coming months.

The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose less in October than analysts had expected. The index forecasts activity by measuring consumer expectations, building permits and other data.

And the number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits, unchanged last week, remains above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs.

Together, the two reports suggested that the lack of job creation is dampening consumer expectations and prospects for an economic rebound.

New jobless claims have fallen about 22 percent since spring. But companies’ reluctance to hire is weighing down the housing market — and the economy’s fledgling recovery.

A separate report Thursday found that a rising proportion of fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit are sinking into foreclosure.

Driven by rising unemployment, such loans accounted for nearly 33 percent of new foreclosures last quarter. That compares with just 21 percent a year ago, when high-risk subprime loans made during the housing boom were the main reason for default.

And the proportion of homeowners with a mortgage who were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure hit a record high for the ninth straight quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.

The Labor Department’s report on jobless benefits said first-time claims amounted to a seasonally adjusted 505,000 last week. That was the same as the previous week’s revised figure, and it matched analysts’ expectations. A year ago, there were 533,000 initial claims.

Economists at Deutsche Bank are forecasting that net job losses will fall to 125,000 in November. But the economy needs to add about 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

Separately, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent last month, indicating a slow, bumpy recovery next year. A gauge of consumer expectations, which are dropping as unemployment continues to rise, weighed down the index.