Business

Retail worries

July 31, 2008

Not-so-happy holidays ahead

Higher prices could put crimp on sales

ANNE D’INNOCENZIO AP Business Writer

NEW YORK — Christmas in July? Maybe not a bad idea this year.

Retailers are already talking about price increases of up to 15 percent this year on holiday goods, from staples like tree ornaments and toys to luxury gifts like European handbags and clothing. The main cause? It’s the same old chestnut, soaring energy prices.

While most consumers are just starting to think about back-to-school shopping, retailers are already preparing for the critical holiday season. Consumers have been seeing prices creep up for many products, but now escalating cost pressures — which are also being fueled by the weaker dollar and higher labor costs in China — are forcing merchants from low-price warehouse clubs to upscale clothiers to pass on more of the burden in the months ahead.

Many stores are still deciding on their holiday prices, and receding oil prices in recent weeks could provide a bit of relief. Still, buying that status handbag now might help shoppers save a little — but for some items, it’s already too late.

And any big surge in demand could lead to more bad news on the inflation front, serving as a catalyst for prices to spiral.

With bigger price increases, the nation’s merchants risk turning off shoppers who may end up buying fewer holiday gifts to keep to their budgets. That could mean a serious hit for the economy, since consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity and the holiday period accounts for a huge chunk of merchants’ sales and profits.

“Truthfully, I probably won’t purchase items that go up that much — especially something like Christmas decorations,” said Marilyn Reese of Cincinnati, who works at an insurance company. “I will just go with what I have.”

Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research, says that price inflation will be yet “another factor that undermines consumer purchasing power and will hurt spending even more.”

The price increases come as stores also have to be pushing even deeper discounts this holiday season to attract customers. But that 50 percent off may not be as good a deal as last year since the original price could be higher.

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