Hackett’s odds assessed

Some local political pundits agree that Chris Hackett’s defeat of Dan Meuser on Tuesday in the 10th Congressional District race for the Republican nomination came as a surprise. They differ on whether he will pull off another victory in November.

Hackett, 45, of Kingston Township, will face freshman U.S. Rep. Chris Carney, 49, of Dimock Township, in the general election Nov. 4. Though Carney is the incumbent, David Sosar, a political science professor who follows local politics, says the race “is Hackett’s to lose.”

Sosar, an assistant professor at King’s College, said the Meuser and Hackett race was hard fought for a good reason. He said both men believed the winner of the primary would be the congressman come January.

While Carney has more than a $1 million campaign war chest, name recognition and a conservative track record in his short time in office, Sosar said he has one big impediment.

“He’s still a Democrat and that’s a disadvantage for him,” the professor from Hazleton said. President George Bush carried the district with 60 percent of the vote in 2004. Republicans had held the 10th District seat for four decades until Carney defeated Don Sherwood in 2006. “I think he’s an underdog just based on the demographics of the district.”

Fairview Township resident Tom Baldino, a professor of political science at Wilkes University, puts the odds at 50-50 for either candidate to win right now. He said the district was gerrymandered in a way to benefit Republicans, but that congressional elections often favor incumbents.

Republicans hold a distinct advantage in voter registration in the district that spans all or parts of 14 counties in Northeastern and Central Pennsylvania. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats nearly 3 to 2.

Jeff Brauer, a Keystone College associate professor of political science, said Carney is one of the few Democrats in office who can withstand an attack based on conservative values.

In fact, the National Journal took a close look at the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and ranked them on how liberal and conservative they have been this session. Carney ranked dead center on the liberal side at 217. He was also in the top half on the conservative side, ranked 212th in the non-partisan political publication’s March 8 edition.

Those numbers – and Carney’s history of voting his district rather than his party – will aid him in the fall, Brauer, of Dalton, said.

Carney, speaking from Washington, D.C. Wednesday afternoon, said his record speaks for itself. Asked what he has to do to win in the fall, he replied, “I’m doing it right now. I think I’m representing the district the way it wants to be represented. I represent what the district is about. … When we govern in the middle, you accomplish a lot.”

Sosar said the Republican Party needs to come together to support its nominee. He said that even though Hackett and Meuser waged a negative campaign against each other, the party will have to mend fences and rally behind Hackett.

Though, Bauer pointed out, a lack of support from GOP big-wigs didn’t hurt Hackett.

Meuser was backed by party leaders, movers and shakers in every district county and had the support of former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and the Lackawanna County Republican Committee.

On Wednesday, Paul Catalano, the chairman of the Lackawanna County Republican Committee, said he was “100 percent positive the party will get behind (Hackett).”

Hackett said he knows he has work to do to fix the fissure that appeared in the GOP during the hotly contested race. Negative ads were rampant throughout the last month, and Hackett had to deny news reports that he told some Meuser reporters he was “pro-choice.” Carney called the negative attack ads lobbed by both GOP candidates “demeaning to the district.”

Hackett said he has already started calling elected Republican officials to schedule meetings so the healing could begin.

“I think like most times in a hotly contested primary, both sides have to have the best interests of the party at heart,” Hackett said. “I believe everyone will close ranks and work together in the general election.”

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Winner of GOP 10th nod seems like favorite, but challenge posed by Carney formidable, experts say.

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