Study: Number of inmates to rise

An internal analysis concludes that Luzerne County’s prison population will reach 1,350 in 2025, but it doesn’t factor in the impact of programs that may keep people out of prison, such as a proposed mental health court.

The analysis, prepared by the county engineering department, was requested as county commissioners wrestle with an unauthorized design expansion of the proposed prison.

Commissioners had publicly voted in April 2006 to hire L. Robert Kimball and Associates to design a 1,134-bed prison because the Water Street facility is overcrowded and outdated. However, Kimball representative Larry Bickford said former county chief clerk/manager Sam Guesto gave him the go-ahead to expand the prison design to 1,500 beds.

Though the design expansion was recently halted by commissioners, Bickford said his company expects to be paid $470,000 for work done to date on the larger project scope. Commissioners haven’t disclosed what they plan to do about the expense.

Minority Commissioner Stephen A. Urban and Commissioner Chairwoman Maryanne Petrilla said commissioners should have voted separately to officially amend the contract and publicly revealed that the change will add $1.3 million to the design costs.

Petrilla and Urban said this week that the internal analysis leads them to believe there is no need to expand the facility design or to launch another new full-blown study of prison size.

The county’s outside consultant, Carter Goble, had projected the prison population will be 1,015 in 2025.

The prison’s average population has fallen below Carter Goble’s projections in 2004, 2005, 2006 and so far in 2008.

In 2007, the consultant projected the prison would have 839 inmates, but the average population ended up at 848, according to the new analysis.

The county engineering department came up with the 1,350-population projection by using statistical models of the actual averages from 2004 through 2008.