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This year’s autumn foliage should be spectacular, says a weather expert as the annual turning of leaves nears

The region can expect a fairly uneventful autumn on the weather front, according to the National Weather Service, but that should serve only to make experiencing the bountiful bouquet of leaves in their final, fiery throes even more enjoyable.

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A jogger runs along the dike in Wilkes-Barre’s Kirby Park Wednesday afternoon. Some trees are starting to change already as summer’s heat gives way to crisp days of autumn.

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“I anticipate it to be good. I think you’ll see some nice color coming up here in the next couple of weeks throughout our region,” said Nick Lylo, the district forester for the Lackawanna State Forest. “I think our region of Pennsylvania has some of the best fall foliage in the East. We’re comparable with any other area in the Northeast.”

The foliage will peak in late October, he said. “Already on the ridge tops, you’re starting to see some color on the maples and the black gums,” he said. “I would say some of your best viewing … (is to) drive (state) Route 118 out towards Ricketts Glen. … In those areas, you’re going to see our northern hardwoods: birch, beech, maple.”

Ashes have a dull brown leaf, but drop it early, while aspens with their browns and oranges, sugar maples going from golden brown to orange and bright-red red maples will hold on longer. “Oaks are the last. They’ll hold onto their leaves into November. They’re the brown leaves you see on ridge tops.”

In the river country, however, foliage won’t be too exciting, he said. River-bottom species, like sycamore, river birch, ashes, elms and willows, are all dull and drop early. “You’re probably seeing bare trees already down along some of your river corridors,” Lylo said.

Either way, viewing weather should be suitably fall-like. The NWS is predicting normal temperatures and precipitation from October through December, which means average daily highs will fall to the mid-50s in October, mid-40s in November and upper 30s in December.

With daily highs currently around 70 degrees, the region will cool pretty quickly, said Erik Heden, a meteorologist with the service’s Binghamton office. “We’re losing 15 degrees by basically a month from now,” he said.

There is precedent for warmer weather, though. The record high at the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton International Airport for Oct. 2 is 91 degrees, he said, and there have been 80-degree days in November and 70-degree days in December. “It can happen, but climatologically speaking, it’s not likely.”

Otherwise, the outlook’s “not that interesting,” he said. “You’ll see a lot of day-to-day fluctuations, it should be a little more humid than normal, and typical falls are usually dry. … The fall’s boring, but boring’s good because that means it’s quiet weather-wise.”

However, the winter could be strange. An el Nino – a warm ocean-current phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean – formed over the summer. The affected wind and water patterns cause weather changes for thousands of miles, and, depending on how strong it was, could affect the North American winter.

A moderate effect will increase precipitation without affecting temperatures, while a strong effect would increase precipitation and temperature.