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ELECTION 2008: Non-partisan letter moves race from ‘Leaning Democratic’ to ‘Toss-up’

July 30, 2008

Kanjorski in trouble, report says

By Bill O'Boyle boboyle@timesleader.com
Times Leader Staff Writer
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Paul Kanjorski’s re-election campaign could be in trouble, according to a Washington, D.C., political handicapper.

The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report has changed its analysis of the 11th Congressional District race between Kanjorski and Republican challenger Lou Barletta to “Toss-up/Tilt Democratic.” The contest previously was described as leaning Democratic.

Kanjorski, a 12-term Democrat from Nanticoke, is airing early ads to “try to boost his standing,” according to the latest Rothenberg report.

Barletta, the Hazleton mayor, challenged Kanjorski in 2002. Kanjorski won by 22,000 votes in the heavily Democratic district. A Republican has not held the seat since Jim Nelligan rode Ronald Reagan’s coattails to victory in 1980 after the resignation of Daniel J. Flood.

The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter covering federal and state politics, interviewed 11th District voters, and reviewed poll results – but not those commissioned by the candidates.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the report, said he interviewed Barletta a week ago.

“Paul Kanjorski is in trouble – serious trouble,” he said.

Rothenberg said the combination of hard data and the quality of Barletta as a candidate translates into trouble for Kanjorski.

“We know Kanjorski and his reputation,” Rothenberg said. “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Kanjorski are already advertising and they don’t do that unless they are worried.”

The latest report findings were greeted with enthusiasm by local Republican leaders and dismissed by the Kanjorski camp.

“These rating services rely on propaganda from the national party committees for their rankings,” Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell said. “Unfortunately for us, the Republicans seem to be doing a better job at that. After all, they don’t have too many races to talk about that are competitive, so they focus on Barletta, whom the GOP is bankrolling. The only ranking that counts is the results on Election Day.”

Barletta’s rise to favorite status did not surprise local Republicans Steve Urban and Paul DeFabo. Both said they believe Kanjorski is vulnerable and that Barletta can win.

“We’ve known all along that Barletta has an excellent chance of winning,” said DeFabo, second vice chairman of the Luzerne County Republican Party. “All Republicans are working to help him get elected. I personally think Lou is going to win and people will be surprised at the margin of victory.”

Barletta will open an office near Public Square soon, DeFabo said.

Urban, Republican county commissioner, said he recognized Barletta’s popularity more than a year ago when he was with the Hazleton mayor at a Mohegan Sun event. Urban and Barletta were talking outside the casino for 15 minutes – and all the while Urban said people continuously approached Barletta to shake his hand and encourage him to run.

“That said a lot to me,” Urban said. “The public knows who he is and they want change. Lou Barletta is the right man for change in this district. It won’t surprise me at all if he wins.”

Rothenberg expects 2008 will be a strong Democratic year, and said Kanjorski is one of a handful of Democrats facing serious challenges.

Barletta campaign manager Vince Galko said Washington insiders are beginning to see the energy that he senses is in the district.

DeFabo, who is working on the Barletta campaign, said: “Change is in the air, especially in the 11th District.”

What the Rothenberg report said

“U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski is in trouble. Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, who has gained national attention through his efforts to crack down on illegal immigrants in his city, ended June with $322,000 in the bank. He is extremely personable and has terrific personal poll numbers.

“Kanjorski has plenty of cash ($2.17 million on hand on 6/30), and is running media to try to boost his standing. The DCCC is up with ads too, a sure sign of concern. Polling shows district voters want a change, and Kanjorski and Barletta are running within a few points of each other. A major Democratic migraine. Move to Toss-up/Tilt Democratic.”

Bill O’Boyle, a Times Leader staff writer, can be reached at 829-7218.

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