Local congressional races in flux

A review of recent analyses from political Web sites and independent polling indicates freshman Chris Carney has a stronger grip on his seat than longtime Congressman Paul E. Kanjorski.

Carney, D-Dimock Township, faces a challenge by Kingston Township Republican businessman Chris Hackett. Kanjorski, D-Nanticoke, is challenged by Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, a Republican.

Two recently released political reports updated ratings of the two Northeast Pennsylvania congressional races and a Franklin & Marshall poll has been conducted.

The nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report changed the rating of the Carney/Hackett race from “pure toss-up” to “tilts Democratic.” It made the opposite move with the Kanjorski/Barletta race, which is now listed as “pure toss-up.”

Stuart Rothenberg, on his Web site’s blog, wrote: “Hardly any Democratic-held seats are at great risk” with the exception of a few, including Kanjorski.

The Pindell Report, a Politicker.com product, says 12-term incumbent Kanjorski is still in a “toss-up” situation with Barletta. The report also shows the 10th District race “leans Democratic.” Earlier this month it was classified as “toss-up” and as recently as Sept. 11, showed Hackett in the driver’s seat with a “leans Republican” rating.

Registered Republicans in the 10th District outnumber registered Democrats 5-to-4.

In his analysis of the Carney/Hackett race, Mark Pindell writes: “Polls continue to show a sizeable Carney lead. And there’s a big reason for that: Hackett is failing to win the full support of Republican voters.”

A poll released Oct. 9 by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College shows Carney with a 14-point edge over Hackett with 39 percent of those polled behind Carney and 25 percent behind Hackett; 36 percent said they were undecided.

A Lycoming College poll released Sept. 29 showed Carney ahead of Hackett by 10 points – 45.7 percent to 36.1 percent with 18.2 percent undecided.

Hackett campaign manager Mark Harris said the independent polls still show Carney hasn’t reached the 50 percent mark.

“Clearly any time an incumbent is under 50 percent they’re in trouble. We’re being outspent nearly 2-to-1. The same thing happened in the primary (when Hackett defeated fellow Republican businessman Dan Meuser),” Harris said.