News

August 28, 2008

Poll says Hackett, Carney close

Non-partisan Roll Call says 49 percent support the Dem, 45 percent favor the Republican.

By Andrew M. Seder aseder@timesleader.com
Times Leader Staff Writer
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The results of the first published poll focused solely on the 10th Congressional District race between Chris Carney and Chris Hackett shows a close race. But a poll conducted by a firm hired by the Carney campaign shows the Dimock Township Democrat leading by a wide margin.

The published poll of 623 likely voters was taken exclusively for the Washington, D.C., non-partisan political newspaper Roll Call. Conducted Saturday through Monday by SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, the results were published in Roll Call’s Wednesday edition.

In a head-to-head matchup, Carney, the incumbent, was supported by 49 percent of those polled compared with 45 percent for Hackett, the poll indicates. The difference was within the poll’s four-point margin of error.

“We’re very pleased,” Hackett campaign manager Mark Harris said. “After more than a month of TV ads trying to promote his paper-thin record in Congress, Chris Carney is still being rejected by voters. We fully expect Carney and his liberal Washington allies to ramp up their negative message now.”

While Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district, neither party accounts for more than 50 percent of voters, meaning Independents and moderates could play a big role. Carney, according to the poll, has a 2-to-1 advantage among self-identified moderates and was preferred by independents by a 5-to-4 ratio.

Incumbents typically have advantages in finances. That’s the case in this race, too.

Federal Election Commission filings through the second quarter of this year – the most recent reports filed by candidates – show Hackett had spent more than $1.2 million on the race. That figure includes $740,000 in personal loans he made to his campaign during the tight primary race with Dan Meuser. The Hackett campaign had $267,000 in the bank at the end of June.

Carney spent $595,000 through June 30 and banked more than $1.1 million. He was unopposed in the primary.

The poll asked voters questions on 11 topics ranging from approval ratings of presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama to approval of the job Congress is doing.

Carney was viewed favorably by 40 percent of those surveyed and unfavorably by 23 percent; 30 percent were neutral and 7 percent had no opinion.

Hackett had a favorable rating of 36 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 23 percent; 31 percent of those polled were neutral and 10 percent had no opinion.

A poll conducted Aug. 19-21 by Momentum Analysis, a Washington-based polling firm that primarily serves Democrats, shows Carney ahead of Hackett by a 2-to-1 margin. Of the 400 likely district voters polled, 54 percent said they’d vote for the incumbent while 27 percent said their vote goes to Hackett.

Momentum President Margie Omero said the poll queried 400 registered and likely voters in the district. Omero said 51 percent of them were registered Republican, 42 percent Democrat and the remaining 7 percent were third party or unaffiliated. She said that even with the disparity of Republicans to Democrats in the district, the poll shows Carney still holds a comfortable lead.

The difference appears to be voters of the Republican Party willing to cross over to vote for Carney while Democrats remain overwhelmingly loyal to Carney. Both polls reflect this.

In the Momentum Poll, Hackett has 47 percent of the Republican vote, and 5 percent of the Democrats. Carney has 31 percent of the Republican vote and a whopping 82 percent of his own party’s vote.

In the SurveyUSA poll, Hackett is favored by 75 percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Democrats. Carney draws support of 20 percent of Republicans and 83 percent of Democrats.

“These polls confirm what we already know. Congressman Carney has very strong support across party lines and across the district,” said Vincent Rongione, Carney for Congress campaign manager.

“We will continue to fight for every vote and focus on the issues that really matter. It is very encouraging to see that our positive message -- lowering taxes, fighting for veterans, lowering gas prices, and helping to create jobs right here in America -- is connecting with voters in every corner of Northeast and Central Pennsylvania. Clearly folks are already tired of our challenger’s constant mudslinging and personal attacks.”

Andrew M. Seder, a Times Leader staff writer, may be reached by calling 570-829-7269.

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