Profs: Vote by Specter for stimulus bill smart

Strategic moves, rather than political ones, have helped U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter become the longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania history.

However, his vote Tuesday to approve the Democrat-backed $838 billion stimulus package may be his boldest move yet. Specter, R-Philadelphia, joined Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, both of Maine, as the only three Republicans in the Senate to support the bill. The final vote was 61-37, with 60 votes needed for passage.

It didn’t take long for Republicans to speak out against Specter and put the bull’s-eye on him and his 2010 re-election campaign.

“Sen. Specter voted for the so-called stimulus bill, mortgaging the future of Pennsylvania’s children and grandchildren” said Scott Wheeler, executive director of the National Republican Trust Political Action Committee. Before the vote, Wheeler issued a statement putting Republican senators “on notice.”

“If they support the stimulus package, we will make sure every voter in their state knows how they tried to further bankrupt voters in an already bad economy.”

A conservative Republican will undoubtedly challenge Specter in the primary next year, said Keystone College political science professor Jeff Brauer. But regardless of how Specter voted Tuesday, that would have happened, he added.

In Brauer’s estimation, Specter’s vote was strategically sound and can be used as a future talking point about how he put the good of the economy and Pennsylvania ahead of any political party.

Tom Baldino, political science professor at Wilkes University, agreed with Brauer that the vote was “a very smart thing to do.”

“Clearly he does not cast this vote without having one eye toward the 2010 re-election,” Baldino said.

Specter, fielding a question during a press conference last week on the matter of Republican backlash, said, “Well, there are material risks in the position I’m taking, which may well impact a primary. Those thoughts have not escaped my attention. I believe that my duty is to follow my conscience and vote what I think is in the best interest of the country. And the political risks will have to abide.”

Baldino and Brauer said Specter had a big question to answer from a political strategy standpoint: Will he have a tougher challenge from a Republican in the primary election or from a Democrat in the general election?

“Very clearly, in his assessment, it’s in the general election,” Baldino said.

Brauer said Democratic gains have been made in leaps and bounds in Pennsylvania the past few years, as they hold the governor’s mansion, the state House and one U.S. Senate seat. He said Democratic candidates should be chomping at the bit at the prospect of facing a Republican in Pennsylvania next year.

But thanks to Specter’s moderate voting record, his pro-choice stance and his success in bringing home millions upon millions of dollars to Pennsylvania, Specter has always been able to siphon votes from Democrats and secure those of moderate Republicans.

It worked in 2004, when Pat Toomey, a conservative Republican House member from the Lehigh Valley, gave Specter a run for his money and narrowly lost to Specter by 17,000 votes. Specter then handily defeated Democrat Joseph Hoeffel in the general election by nearly 600,000.

Toomey, who went on to become the head of the conservative political action committee Club for Growth, wasted no time criticizing Specter, Collins and Snowe, calling them “three liberal senators” and defining what they did as a “surrender.” His comments appeared Tuesday afternoon on the National Review’s Web site.

Baldino said Specter is possibly putting his career on the success of the stimulus package.

“Pennsylvania is being hit very hard by this particular economic downturn,” Baldino said. “If he didn’t vote for this and Pennsylvania continues to be hit hard, he would be identified as a culprit.” If it works and Pennsylvania benefits, he added, Specter will be lauded by Democrats and still looked at as a traitor by some Republicans. If it doesn’t work, Republicans will still be mad at him, but he could argue to Democratic voters that he tried.