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Campaign ’08

August 17, 2008

Report: 10th, 11th lean Dem

Congressional Quarterly Politics writes Barletta has gained ground, but Kanjo favored; Carney ahead.

By Bill O'Boyle boboyle@timesleader.com
Times Leader Staff Writer
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A longtime Washington, D.C., publication has rated the two congressional races in Northeastern Pennsylvania, finding each leaning Democratic.

Congressional Quarterly Politics has moved the 11th Congressional race from strong Democrat to leans Democrat, stating Republican challenger Lou Barletta has gained significant ground on 12-term incumbent Paul Kanjorski.

In the 10th Congressional District, the CQ report found incumbent Democrat Chris Carney ahead of Republican Chris Hackett.

On Tuesday, the Pindell Report, a Politicker.com product, said the 11th District race was a tossup and 10th District voters were leaning Republican.

On its Web site, Congressional Quarterly Inc. claims it has been the nation’s leader in political journalism since 1945.

“CQ Politics is changing the rating of the Pennsylvania 11 race to reflect the likelihood of a competitive race this fall between veteran Democratic Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski and Republican Lou Barletta, the mayor of Hazleton and a prominent opponent of illegal immigration,” the CQ report states. “By changing the rating of the race from ‘safe Democrat’ to ‘leans Democrat,’ CQ Politics still rates Kanjorski as the favorite, but acknowledges a strong challenge from Barletta.”

Ed Mitchell, spokesman for Kanjorski, said reports like the one from Congressional Quarterly are not as important as discussion on the issues.

“The public isn’t interested in these insider rankings and pay no attention to them,” Mitchell said. “They don’t affect our strategy. When ‘No Ideas’ Barletta outlines answers for dealing with the energy costs, jobs, food prices, health care and Social Security, then we’ll consider changing our strategy.”

Barletta was pleased with the report’s findings.

“The people in Washington are starting to see what we have been seeing everywhere we go,” Barletta said. “That is, the people of the 11th District want change and are excited about my campaign. I’m working hard for every vote and won’t take any vote for granted.”

Of the 10th District race, the CQ report stated:

“Meanwhile, the Republicans are looking to reclaim some of the seats they lost last time,” the report states. “Their best shot appears to be in the northeastern corner, where Democrat Christopher Carney defeated four-term Republican Don Sherwood, who was politically wounded by a sex scandal. But Carney, a military veteran and former counterterrorism adviser to the Pentagon, is no greenhorn, and Republican Chris Hackett, who heads a recruitment and temporary staffing business, is now an underdog. CQ Politics race rating: Leans Democratic.”

Carney campaign manager Vincent Rongione said the CQ Report confirms what they’ve known all along.

“Chris Carney has broad support from every corner of the 10th district,” Rongione said. “He is well-respected for his service, independence and integrity by Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike. Our campaign is about doing what is best for the people of northeast and central Pennsylvania, and we’re glad to have a publication as well respected as Congressional Quarterly affirming our position.”

Hackett spokesman Mark Harris took the CQ report in stride.

“One commentator says we’re ahead, another says we’re behind,” Harris said. “What matters is the voters of the 10th will have a clear choice between a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican, and we’re confident that Chris Hackett’s conservative principles line up much better with the people of our district.”

The CQ report claims Republican analysts say that Barletta is a stronger candidate now than six years ago, mainly because of the attention he received inside and outside the district for an ordinance he pursued to punish businesses and landlords that employ or house illegal immigrants.

The report notes the difference in campaign financing between Kanjorski ($2.1 million) and Barletta (just over $300,000).

“The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the campaign arm of House Democrats and an ally of Kanjorski, has taken notice of the race,” the report states. “The DCCC this week reported spending $151,000 in independent expenditures for a television ad that links Barletta to Bush, who has poor approval ratings.”

That spending by the DCCC, CQ says, was also a factor in CQ Politics changing the rating of the race.

“Though the DCCC is exceptionally well-funded and this television advertising campaign isn’t prohibitively expensive, political parties don’t spend money in districts where they expect easy wins,” the report said.

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