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Sunday, May 12, 1996 Page:
Don’t count on presidential poll results
It’s official. The presidential preference polls have moved beyond the
realm of simply ridiculous and progressed to a new plateau: totally
preposterousWe have been seeing all these polls that show President Clinton
with a commanding lead over GOP nominee-to-be Bob Dole, and at first glance
they are impressive.
You know how they go: “If the election were held today, Clinton would
defeat Dole by a margin of …”
The margin is always double digits and it always seems to be getting
bigger. If I see one more headline that says “Clinton widens lead,” I might
journey to Pocono Downs and throw myself in front of a speeding horse.
But guess what. These polls are silly, stupid and meaningless. Not only
that, I don’t believe them.
I speak with some authority here because I’m the guy who predicted in June
1992 that Clinton would be elected president — even though he was buried in
the polls behind George Bush and even Ross Perot.
If memory serves, Clinton was pulling poll numbers in the 20-25 percent
range back then, leading many pundits and political deep-thinkers to speculate
that the Democratic Party might not survive his obviously doomed candidacy.
Now, Clinton is the incumbent resident of the White House. His poll numbers
are through the roof. He’s on top of the world. Or so we’re told.
The Clinton vs. Dole poll results have seemed out of whack all along, but
the numbers turned absurd last month with the release of a poll showing
Clinton 21 points ahead of Dole. That’s right: 21 points.
The poll suggested that voters favor Clinton by a margin of 58 percent to
37 percent. We’re talking landslide here.
Why, if this trend continues we may as well call off the November election
and gather round the television for Clinton’s second inaugural address.
Let’s pull ourselves together, folks.
The alleged 58-37 advantage enjoyed by Clinton is 12 points bigger than the
52-44 lead that Ronald Reagan held over Walter Mondale in April 1984.
I said Ronald Reagan, people. Reagan was one of the most popular presidents
in history. In some circles, Reagan was beloved.
The only people who think of Bill Clinton as a beloved figure are all those
lawyers who are racking up a fortune in legal fees while they defend him
against a vast assortment of investigations and lawsuits.
How could anyone believe a poll that suggests Clinton could be re-elected
with nearly 60 percent of the popular vote?
He was elected with 43 percent of the vote in 1992. If Ross Perot hadn’t
been on the ballot, according to exit polls, Clinton might have tallied 52
percent.
That was four years ago, when the Clinton-Gore bus tour seemed like a
wonderfully innovative strategy, when Clinton’s lip-chewing compassion shtick
still seemed sincere, when his talk-show host demeanor could still be mistaken
for leadership potential.
Clinton seemed new and different, and the country was clamoring for
something new and different.
We wanted change. Clinton wanted to “put people first.” We decided to give
him a shot.
But now that he’s been on the job for nearly four years, a lot of us who
figured Clinton was worth a gamble are figuring we were wrong. As Texas Gov.
George W. Bush said a while back: The longer they look at Clinton, the more
the American people appreciate Bush’s dad.
We’ve seen Clinton in action. We’ve seen his weathervane principles, his
lies and deceptions, his self-serving attempts to manipulate the hearts and
minds of America.
Who are these 58 percent of the people who supposedly think Clinton is
doing a great job and apparently can’t wait to re-elect him? If he has lost
some of the 43 percent who backed him last time — he lost me shortly after he
took the oath of office — where is all this spectacular popularity coming
from?
I say these polls are preposterous. And I say the voters will prove me
right when they participate in the only poll that counts — the one to be held
Nov. 5 in every precinct in America.
Bill Thompson, former associate editor of The Times Leader, is a columist
with the Fort Worth (Texas) Star-Telegram. Readers may write to Bill Thompson
at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, 400 W. 7th St., Box 1870, Fort Worth, TX
76101.