Bowl picture quite fuzzy right now for Penn State

A year ago this month, Joe Paterno professed to not even know what the acronym BCS stood for.

“What is it? The BCS? The BSC? I don’t know,” Paterno said as his Penn State team headed into November unbeaten.

While the coach certainly knows all the ins-and-outs of the Bowl Championship Series, he also doesn’t want his team worrying about all of the possibilities and permutations as the Nittany Lions head to Michigan State for Saturday’s regular-season finale.

“You know, you guys (in the media) know more than I do,” he said. “The only thing I know is we’re playing Michigan State this week. Don’t make a darn bit of difference. You guys speculate all you want. If we don’t beat Michigan State, none of that makes any ... none of it’s important. So I don’t waste time with it.”

Paterno is absolutely right about one thing – if the Lions lose to the Spartans, their chances at securing an at-large bid are gone, likely leaving the team for the Outback Bowl at best.

Last year, things were very simple heading into the regular-season finale. Beat Michigan State, go to the Rose Bowl.

This year, Penn State won’t know where it’s headed until the BCS bids are all handed out on the night of Dec. 6. And the scenarios are complex.

“It’s something that’s in the back of our mind, but we’ve got to focus on Michigan State,” sophomore wideout Derek Moye said. “We can’t have the same thing that happened two years ago when we went out there. We could have gone to (a New Year’s Day bowl), but then we went out there and lost and ended up in the Alamo Bowl.”

While Paterno doesn’t want his players to look into their BCS chances right now, that won’t stop the rest of the state from speculating.

As it stands now, eight of the 10 BCS spots are all but spoken for. Six go to the champions of the six major conferences. A seventh will be guaranteed to go to either TCU or Boise State, as long as one of them remains unbeaten. The eighth is almost certain to go to a second SEC team, likely the loser of the Florida-Alabama conference championship game.

That leaves two likely at-large spots available for teams finishing in the top 14 of the BCS rankings.

The following is a list of scenarios that the Lions will be silently rooting for.

A Big 12 title for Texas

Just like in college hoops, the teams on the bubble need to root for the best teams to win their conference. The Longhorns are a lock to play in a BCS bowl even with one loss, so the worst thing for Penn State would be an upset in the Big 12 championship.

Nebraska will likely play Texas in the title game on Dec. 5, and a win there would secure an automatic bid for the Cornhuskers. Texas would scoop up an at-large.

Minnesota to upset Iowa

Ohio State is already ticketed for the Rose Bowl, and each conference can only have a maximum of two teams in the BCS. At No. 13 and No. 14 in the current standings, Iowa and Penn State are both candidates from the Big Ten.

Both teams are 9-2, but Iowa would clearly deserve a shot ahead of Penn State, having beaten the Lions in Happy Valley back in September. But the BCS bowls have zero obligations to take that into account, and Penn State is the more attractive name brand for TV ratings and tickets sold.

If the Hawkeyes lose on Saturday to Minnesota, however, it would save Penn State a lot of hand-wringing on selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State to lose once

Assuming Texas plays for the national title, the Fiesta Bowl would like to replace the Longhorns with another Big 12 team. Right now, the Cowboys are the only eligible team at No. 12.

Should Oklahoma State lose to Colorado or Oklahoma, however, the Fiesta would then have two free slots to hand out to any team left in the top 14.

A loss for Boise or TCU

In the likely event both mid-majors finish unbeaten, the higher-ranked of the two would get an automatic BCS bid – probably TCU. The other would be in the at-large pool, but would likely be picked behind a 10-2 Big Ten squad for financial reasons.

If the Fiesta doesn’t have a Big 12 team to pick, it might opt to go with the Broncos, who famously knocked off Oklahoma out in the desert two seasons ago.