Carney, Marino in dead heat, poll shows

By Andrew M. Seder aseder@timesleader.comTimes Leader Staff Writer

Underfunded and under fire for his relationship with , congressional candidate Tom Marino finds himself ahead in a recent Times Leader poll.

According to the poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday, incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Carney trails his Republican challenger in the 10th Congressional District race, though the difference is within the margin of error.

The Portland Maine polling company Critical Insights asked 197 registered and likely voters in the district who they’d vote for if the election were held the next day. Forty percent chose Marino, a former U.S. Attorney from Lycoming County; 36 percent said Carney, a two-term representative from Susquehanna County; and 24 percent were undecided.

The margin of error is 6.7 percent.

“What you have is a statistical dead heat,” said David Sosar, a King’s College political science professor.

That surprised him and fellow political science professor Jeff Brauer, who teaches at Keystone College.

“I thought Marino would be trailing at this point,” Sosar said. Brauer agreed, saying that Carney has been out in front in fundraising, commercials and is the incumbent, all of which usually mean a lead in the polls in September.

Through June, the most recent campaign finance reports on file with the Federal Election Committee, Carney not only collected twice as much cash as Marino – $247,017 to $122,073 – but he ended the second quarter with more than 70 times the total cash on hand as the Marino campaign. Carney’s campaign reported $792,891 in the bank on July 1. Marino’s statement showed $11,138 in its coffers, or $718,753 less than Carney.

“The fact Marino has yet to wage a strong campaign in any significant way, those numbers are really good for Marino,” Brauer said.

Jason Fitzgerald, spokesman for the Marino campaign, said the results of the poll were in line with other polls that have been conducted but “we’re not taking anything for granted.”

He said as the polls continue to come out showing an incumbent not only below 50 percent but trailing the challenger is “further evidence that Chris Carney’s campaign just isn’t getting traction.”

In addition to the general question about which candidate the respondent would cast a ballot for, the poll also asked specific questions regarding hot button topics in the campaign. The results show Carney might have to shift his focus from consistently trying to link Marino, 58, to his friend and Dunmore businessman Louis DeNaples, who in 1978 pleaded no contest to a felony count of conspiracy.

Those polled were asked specifically is “Tom Marino’s relationship with Louis DeNaples a concern to you?”

Forty-eight percent said no, 26 percent said yes and 26 percent were unsure.

Some commercials that Carney’s campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have been running against Marino have focused on Marino and DeNaples, but half of the 418 people surveyed from throughout the 10th and 11th Congressional Districts said campaign advertising has little or no impact on their voting decision. Twenty-six percent said it had an impact, 21 percent were right in the middle on the five-point scale and two percent said they did not know.

“Right now there are a lot of people willing to look past that evidently,” Sosar said. He added that he believes the commercials will continue to use the Marino/DeNaples relationship as a focus “but I think they’ll see it’s not as effective as they want.”

Wilkes University professor Tom Baldino said he knows what the poll says but when it comes to the responses given on that question: “Don’t believe it. People always express that they aren’t influenced by the ads, but they remember them.”

The poll spelled out one path for the Marino campaign to follow in hitting Carney where it might hurt the most.

Those surveyed were asked if Carney’s vote in support of the health insurance reform act changed their opinion of the congressman. More than half, 55 percent, said it did not. Thirteen percent said they weren’t sure and 32 percent said yes. Of those who answered in the affirmative, 65 percent said their opinion of Carney, 51, worsened. Eighteen percent of those who responded yes said Carney’s health care reform vote improved their opinion of him and 17 percent said they didn’t know whether their opinion got better or worse.

Back in March, a day before the historic House vote, Carney said he was voting in favor of the bill.

“I am voting for this legislation because all Americans should have the same insurance choices enjoyed by members of Congress and their families. If it’s good enough for members of Congress, it is good enough for the people they represent,” Carney said at the time. In a recent interview he said he stands by his vote.

The law passed by a 219-212 tally with all 178 Republicans voting against. Repealing the law has been a rallying cry of the GOP.

Brauer said that while Carney has totally avoided his vote in his own commercials, the poll showing 55 percent did not have their opinion changed by his vote might lead the campaign to begin mentioning some of the more positive aspects of the health care act that have taken effect the past week.

Of the 197 registered and likely voters polled in the 10th District, 51 percent are registered Republicans, 33 percent are registered Democrats and 14 percent said they were a member of a third party or unaffiliated. Two percent refused to indicate what party they were registered with.

Diane Berta, of Carbondale, is a registered Democrat and told the pollster that she was voting for Carney.