Dual-party picks seen as big plus

BILL O ’ BOYLE

boboyle@timesleader.com

Five of the seven candidates for six seats on the Luzerne County Court of Common Pleas secured nominations on both the Democratic and Republican ballots, giving them what local experts say is a distinct advantage.

Sklarosky

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Fred Pierantoni, Michael Vough, Joseph Sklarosky Jr., Lesa Gelb and Jennifer Rogers will appear on both tickets, which means they will be guaranteed a vote on every straight party ballot cast.

Richard Hughes, a Republican, and Molly Hanlon Mirabito, a Democrat, secured only one party nomination. The experts say it is possible for both to win in November, but not likely.

“In the 20 years I’ve been doing judicial campaigns in Luzerne and Lackawanna counties, I’ve not seen anyone who won dual party nominations in the primary not get elected to the bench in the General,” said Ed Mitchell, a longtime political consultant and analyst.

“Barring a scandal, I expect the same thing to happen for this year’s five dual-party nominees. This is largely due to the number of straight-party ticket voters,” he said.

Straight-party votes

In the 2009 municipal general election, 57.2 percent of Democratic votes cast were straight-party ballots and 38.4 percent of the GOP ballots cast were straight party.

According to Luzerne County Election Bureau Director Leonard Piazza, Democrats hold a significant edge in registration – approximately 101,000 registered Democrats to 66,000 Republican.

Tom Baldino, political science professor at Wilkes University, said dual nominees have an advantage, but not an overwhelming one.

“The general election’s dynamics will be different from the primary because independent voters and minor-party supporters were excluded from voting in the primary,” Baldino said. “And considering how many more voters are registered Democratic in the county rather than Republican, those candidates perceived as having stronger affinity to the Democratic Party’s positions are likely to benefit from Democratic Party support and straight-ticket voting in November.”

That would give Mirabito an advantage over Hughes if the sixth seat comes down to a race between the two.

“For Hughes to win, he will need to carry every Republican-registered voter and about one-third of the Democratically registered voters who turn out to vote,” Baldino said. “Mirabito has it a bit easier.”

David Sosar, political science professor at King’s College, says it is “theoretically possible” for one of the dual nominees to lose, but “highly unlikely.”

“Unless something very serious would happen to one of the five top choices between now and November, I don’t see anything strange happening in the general election,” he said. “As for the other two, this will be a tough election.”

Chris Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College, said there is always an advantage to being cross-listed in a general election because it allows candidates the opportunity to collect straight-party votes.

He said being on both tickets doesn’t guarantee victory, but it certainly boosts the chances of winning.

“In the Luzerne County case, it would be a surprise to see both Mirabito and Hughes win given the distinct advantage the other five candidates will get from being on both tickets,” Borick said. “It will take some substantial flaws on the part of one of the cross-listed candidates and/or some outstanding campaigns on the part of Mirabito and Hughes to get both of them elected.”

No ‘sure things’

Susan Kolesar has run several local campaigns. She is supporting Gelb in the judicial race. Kolesar said there are no “sure things” in Luzerne County politics.

“With over 72,000 votes cast in the primary on the Democratic ticket alone up for grabs, it really is anybody’s game to lose,” Kolesar said. “I can only speak for Lesa Gelb’s campaign, and I can tell you we are absolutely taking nothing for granted.”

Kolesar said Mirabito and Hughes will have to spend a lot of money to win a seat on the bench.

Mitchell calls the race for the sixth seat a toss-up.

“Mirabito will have the party registration and gender edge, while Hughes should raise and spend more money and have a ballot position advantage,” Mitchell said.

Hughes will have the number one spot on the ballot because he received the most Republican votes in the primary. It matters only because the sitting governor – Tom Corbett – is also a Republican. Piazza said the ballot positions two through seven are: Sklarosky, Vough, Pierantoni, Gelb, Rogers and Mirabito.