NBC News program to focus on Luzerne County’s voting trends

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<p>Burns</p>

Burns

<p>Bozinski</p>

Bozinski

<p>Behrens</p>

Behrens

<p>Mitchell</p>

Mitchell

<p>Borick</p>

Borick

<p>Toll</p>

Toll

WILKES-BARRE — Luzerne County’s voting trends will soon be back in the national spotlight as next year’s midterm elections approach, and Ed Mitchell sees that as a good thing.

The veteran political analyst this week said the county is representative of regions of the state and country that have had significant swings of Democratic to Republican voters in 2016 and 2020.

“I believe by interviewing voters, tracking demographics and economies, they will try to determine if the switch occurred because of a particular attraction to Donald Trump’s policies, or something else that may be more permanent.”

Mitchell was responding to the announcement that NBC News and Meet the Press have relaunched its year-long “County to County” project, covering and embedding in seven bellwether counties from coast-to-coast to report on issues with national implications as the 2022 midterms begin to take shape.

Luzerne County will be one of the counties featured in the year-long project.

In a news release from NBC News announcing the “County to County” project over the next year, NBC News reporters will build on the success of the 2020 initiative, doubling down on its on-the-ground reporting to understand — from the ground up — the issues, political fault lines, and national headlines driving local conversations.

NBC News Reporter Dasha Burns will report from Luzerne County as well as from Delaware County, Ohio.

The other counties to be featured are: Chattooga County, Ga.; Duval County, Fla. and Dane County, Wisc.; Anson County, N.C., Washoe County, Nev.

NBC said the reporters will interview voters throughout the next year in the seven demographically significant counties, track the local economies, media landscapes and evolving opinions and sentiments as the 2022 midterm races begin to take shape and unfold.

The reporting will appear across all platforms of NBC News, MSNBC, and NBC News NOW. In addition, NBCNews.com/counties will have stories, segments and interactive maps.

“Focus groups and voter sentiment interviews — what NBC is trying to do on a larger than usual scale — have a place in gauging public opinion if used in combination with conventional political polling,” Mitchell said. “For a variety of reasons, regular polling has been off the last few cycles. I think news networks, publications and campaigns are trying many different ways to get a more accurate appraisal of voter sentiment.”

Mitchell said he thinks races in the country next year will be very competitive and because of historical trends in off-year elections and current voter attitudes in the region, he said Republicans will have an advantage “if they find solid candidates who can competitively raise sufficient money.”

Region in focus

Christopher Borick, professor of Political Science and director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, said Luzerne County has produced significant shifts in terms of electoral preferences during elections in the last decade, with these changes representative of broader national dynamics.

“Given that the county is located in one of the key swing states in the country, and in the region where Biden grew up, national interest seems quite reasonable,” Borick said. “Trump’s popularity and interest in the county also elevates its profile as the former President exerts himself into upcoming electoral cycles.”

Borick noted that cycles are powerful things in American politics and after Democratic success in 2020, the winds are now at the backs of Republicans.

“I expect a generally positive election for Republicans next week, including in Luzerne County where Republicans had already made gains in recent years,” Borick said. “There is more energy in Republican ranks right now and I think that energy will be realized on election day.”

Benjamin Toll, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Political Science and Criminology at Wilkes University, said Luzerne County gained national prominence because of its status as one of three pivot counties (along with Erie and Northampton) in Pennsylvania in 2016 that voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012, but voted for President Trump in 2016.

“Luzerne County was the only one of those three that voted for President Trump again in 2020,” Toll said. “The county itself reflects many of the issues faced by post-industrial communities across the country. Lack of employment opportunities and higher than average unemployment lead to a general concern about the economy. Blue collar workers that left the Democratic Party over the last generation, but felt politically homeless until President Trump appeared are common in the county. Then, simply put, being a county close to President Biden’s boyhood home makes for a fascinating story to the national press.”

Toll said he believes the 2022 mid-term election will be heavily contested and especially so in Luzerne County.

“The two political parties continue to see it as a bellwether for the many areas around the country similar to it,” Toll said. “But, we will also have a gubernatorial election as well as an expensive Senate campaign taking place. I expect to see the voters that came out to support President Trump help the Republican Party win in the county in 2022.”

However, Toll said the interesting question will be if voters that were supportive primarily of Trump, will come out to the polls again when he is not on the ballot.

“I expect the GOP to continue winning, but not as pronounced as it was in 2016 and 2020,” Toll said.

Toll said he believes the primary reason for national outlets wanting to spend time here is the county represents a lot of middle America.

“It is not far from New York City, or Washington D.C., and the history of its importance over the last several years cannot be understated,” Toll said. “Whether it will continue to retain its importance remains to be seen, but over the next several years it is safe to assume that many stories will be written with the continued goal of understanding how Biden’s agenda is playing near his hometown, whether Trump Republicans remain committed voters, and how post-industrial towns are making sense of an economic landscape that continues to be unfavorable.”

County party leaders

Luzerne County Democratic Chair Kathy Bozinski said NBC has not yet contacted her about the County to County series, but she said she is not surprised that the network will focus on this region.

“I did see (NBC Meet the Press host) Chuck Todd’s interview on this, and he’s right on target with his analysis,” Bozinski said. “We’re hoping the increase in votes that President Biden had in 2020 as compared to Hilary Clinton’s vote total in 2016 against Donald Trump continue to trend.”

Bozinski said she plans to work with the Democratic Committee and Party to energize voters.

“I think Pennsylvania as a whole is a great bellwether for the 2022 midterms, when you look at the contrast developing between parties in the gubernatorial race, and the incredibly talented field that is emerging in the Democratic race for U.S. Senate and its contrast with the announced Republicans,” Bozinski said. “Luzerne will play a role in both of those races, and I can see where national media would look here for indicators.”

County Republican Chair Justin Behrens was interviewed by NBC last week at the Republican headquarters. He said NBC told him they also interviewed several people from Luzerne County.

“This proves to the state that Luzerne County hands down will be again the pivotal county,” Behrens said. “We won this county in 2016 with President Trump, then we became a majority Republican in the County Council and the county again voted for President Trump in 2020. This county is home to hard working men and women that want their voices heard. The Democratic Party has failed to recognize that and the Republican Party is the welcoming tent speaking their language.”

Behrens said he was told that NBC will be visiting Luzerne County to follow those they interviewed last week and will be looking for more people which he will help connect to them.

“Like everyone, I would like them to report it fairly and honestly,” Behrens said. “I told them that I expect that they be fair and objective. They told me they want to see the trends and make this a documentary of the race with no set agenda.”

About Dasha Burns

NBC News Reporter Dasha Burns will be reporting from Luzerne County, Pa. and Delaware County, Ohio for the year year-long “County to County” project launched by NBC News and Meet the Press.

Burns joined NBC in 2016 as a producer, covering everything from the 2016 election to Charlottesville from the field and the control room.

She began reporting on-air at NBC with a focus on spotlighting the voices of everyday Americans from every corner of the country, to better understand the state of the nation ahead of the 2020 race.

She has helped spearhead the “County to County” election series and has also worked to shed light on complex issues that impact minority communities, like gerrymandering, the digital divide and environmental injustice.

Dasha attended UC Berkeley and holds a B.A. in Anthropology, Media Studies and Theater. She currently lives in New York.

Reach Bill O’Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.