Eyewitness News Chief Meteorologist Josh Hodell talks about the path of Hurricane Agnes during an interview at the WBRE/WYOU TV studios in Wilkes-Barre.
Roger DuPuis | Times Leader
WBRE/WYOU meteorologist talks about the conditions that created a monster
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WILKES-BARRE — When meteorologists track storms today, they rely on a range of scientific and technological developments that the forecasters of 1972 could only have dreamed of.
We asked Eyewitness News Chief Meteorologist Josh Hodell to talk about the Agnes storm based on his study of it using modern tools — how the storm formed and traveled, how it compares with other storms to hit our area, and whether we can expect a storm like that one to occur again. The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Q: How did the Agnes storm form and became so powerful?
A: Well, it, started as many other tropical systems do: You get some thunderstorms — for lack of a better description, a cluster of thunderstorms. You had some other interactions … a low pressure center forms … It turns into a more organized area of low pressure, it’s over the warm water, it intensifies. So it goes from some thunderstorms to an area of low pressure, to a tropical depression, to a tropical storm, and then it’s over the Gulf of Mexico and it becomes a hurricane.
Q: What made it different from other storms?
A: Usually, when you have these tropical systems that make landfall, they weaken. In this case it makes landfall along the Gulf coast and it makes that slow journey overland through Florida, Georgia and then the Carolinas. So then it meanders, it heads towards the Carolina coast, so there’s additional interaction with another boundary that’s setting up or nearby there. And now it kind of re-intensifies, it gets reinvigorated, it’s back over warmer water. And now we have a re-intensification and the steering flow takes it north, and you end up making a landfall on Long Island. And then it gets kind of just pulled back across Pennsylvania.
Q: But it stayed here. It stalled, Right?
A: Well, it kind of stalled. You had a secondary low that formed. So the two are now interacting with each other, and you have the low coming in from the west that is interacting with that now tropical system, and you had a little bit of a slowdown in the speed. It looped a little bit, hung out for an extended period of time and then moved off towards the north.
Q: How does it compare to 2011, you know, in terms of how those storms behaved?
A: In 2011? Well, August was wet. Then you get Irene, which is a tropical system loaded with moisture. Then I think it was a week or so later you get Lee. Your ground is saturated. Your water has nowhere to go. Already wet weather combined with two tropical systems. So there’s a little bit of a difference there in terms of comparing the two scenarios, and Agnes did more damage.
Q: Now I know some of that has to do with the levy and you know, the protections we had then (2011), but why was Agnes more damaging in the long run, do you think? Was there more water?
A: Agnes was the wettest tropical system in Pennsylvania. But I don’t know if I have an answer for you as to why Agnes was worse. Is it flood preparedness? Is it the amount of water? It could be multiple reasons, but it also could also be your levee system.
Q: When you say it was the wettest, is that in terms of rainfall? How do you quantify that?
A: Yes, amount of rain. And it varied across Pennsylvania. There were parts of Northeastern Pennsylvania that had two to four inches of rain, and then you get into central Pennsylvania where you’re talking double-digit amounts. That’s a lot of rain in a very short period.
It’s kind of interesting to think about most of that rain in central Pa. and and less up north, but you had all this damage right along the Susquehanna. Why? The basin is large. That basin goes into upstate New York, so you’re dealing with their rain, you’re dealing with our rain.
Q: Do you expect we will ever see anything like Agnes again?
A: It’s difficult to get an exact setup in the exact same way, but never say never.
Q: Could climate change increase the number of significant storms like this that we see?
A: In terms of a general description of it, everybody wants to point a finger at an event and say “that’s climate change.” You cannot single-handedly point at one event and say it’s a result of climate change.
But I think what you have with climate change is basically an increase in moisture, and we’ve been seeing that a lot. Think about how humid summers have gotten, think about how it seems to rain a little bit more when it does rain. There’s street flooding, there’s urban flooding. So climate change does lead to that. And with an increasing global temperature, now your atmosphere is able to hold a little more water. So the potential for these tropical systems to become more water-laden is certainly there.
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FULL COVERAGE
• Watch for stories in our print and e-editions all this week, culminating with a special section as part of next Sunday’s Times Leader.
• The WBRE/WYOU special Agnes webpage is https://www.pahomepage.com/agnes-at-fifty-a-look-back-at-the-flood-of-1972/.
You also can access it through the QR code that appears with this story.
• The Times Leader’s special Agnes webpage is https://www.timesleader.com/agnes.
