Indicators 2024: Data shows regional population shift

WILKES-BARRE — According to The Institute’s chief operating officer, Jill Avery-Stoss, demographics describe the features of a community.

Each year, The Institute — a regional nonprofit that specializes in community-based research — publishes a series of indicators. These indicators are data points that can be used to explore changes and emerging trends in Northeast Pennsylvania.

The publication opens with a demographic overview of Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wayne counties.

“By observing the changing patterns within a population, it is possible to predict and prepare for future needs,” Avery-Stoss said. “Policymakers and planners use this information to design programs in areas such as health care and education, and to allocate resources to support these services.”

Avery-Stoss said there are three components of population change — births, deaths and migration. Birth rates in the region have declined since 1990, and the population is aging. In fact, older adults comprise a larger share of the population locally compared with the Commonwealth.

“The fairly low ratio of children to senior citizens may lead to greater workforce challenges if there are not enough people to fill jobs as baby boomers leave the labor force,” added Avery-Stoss.

As of 2022, a majority share of the regional population was between 55 and 64 years old. More than 20% of the population was age 65 or older. Less than 11% was nine years old or younger. Shares of older people that outsize shares of younger people could show a community in decline and in need of certain resources.

Avery-Stoss said migration also affects population change. Despite declining birth rates and an aging community, the number of people living in Northeastern Pennsylvania has risen slightly, due to inward migration. This inward migration mirrors a nationwide trend of people moving out of large, high cost-of-living metro areas. It is still unclear whether this shift will be permanent or temporary.

“This growth rate is lower than growth rates nationwide and in other states, however,” said Avery-Stoss. “As a result, Pennsylvania has lost a seat in the Congressional delegation. Population change will also affect the volume of resources allotted for things like housing and public services, making this an important indicator to monitor.”

Household composition data also offers insights

Household composition refers to the number of people living in a home, their relationships and their needs. Households that consist of single-parent families, or perhaps grandparents raising grandchildren, face unique challenges. Avery-Stoss said they may rely on single or fixed incomes, for example. She said it is important for certain services, benefits and policies to be available to help them fill their caregiving roles.

Avery-Stoss said there has been some recent change in the number of single-parent households. In Lackawanna and Wayne counties, shares of female single-parent households have decreased and the shares of male single-parent households have risen. In Luzerne County, shares of female and male single-parent households have increased.

“The last two decades have brought notable change in numbers of grandparents raising grandchildren,” Avery-Stoss said.

Lackawanna County’s number peaked at 1,330 in 2010 and declined through 2022. Its lowest estimate occurred in 2022, at 806.

Luzerne County and Wayne County have seen steady increases, however. In 2022, Luzerne County reported almost 2,400 grandparents raising grandchildren.