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WILKES-BARRE — In the 2017 municipal election in Luzerne County, voter turnout was just under 25 percent of all registered voters. In 2016, the year of Donald Trump, voter turnout was much higher — 67 percent.
Chris Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, said all indicators point to a larger than normal turnout for this midterm election.
“We’re going to see by mid-term standards a very high turnout on Tuesday,” Borick said. “Absentee ballots, are up, registration numbers for Republicans and Democrats have increased and polling has shown that enthusiasm is much higher.”
Borick said it all points to a sizable increase in voter turnout.
Borick said past midterm elections have seen turnout in the mid 30 percent range. He said depending how voting goes across the state, he wouldn’t be shocked to see turnout in the mid-40 percent range and in areas where there are key Congressional races, more than 50 percent turnout is possible.
“I think you will see higher numbers come out in both parties,” Borick said. “President Trump is a galvanizing force and lots of Republican voters want to offer him support. A good chunk of his base will come out.”
Borick said on the Democratic side, voters seem to be highly energized.
“They seem very much inspired to counter Trump,” Borick said. “They really seem to be all-in for this election.”
All of that, Borick said, makes for a recipe for a higher than average mid-term turnout.
So what will a higher voter turnout mean for the candidates? Borick predicts Gov. Tom Wolf and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey will survive and be re-elected — Wolf for his second term as governor and Casey for his third 6-year term in the Senate.
Borick said it will be a very tough cycle for Republicans Barletta and Wagner to be competing. Borick believes Republican Dan Meuser should win in the 9th Congressional District since it has a decisive Republican edge in voter registration. But despite a clear Democratic edge in the 8th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright is in a tight race with Republican John Chrin.
“Cartwright should hold his seat because of the strong Democratic edge in registration and even though that district went for Trump in 2016,” Borick said. “Many of those Trump voters voted down ballot for Democrats.”
He said Cartwright’s incumbency and Chrin not being from the heart of the district — the Wyoming Valley — mean Cartwright is likely to survive.
College student poll
The Institute for Public Policy and Economic Development (The Institute) conducted its annual Fall College Student Poll, which evaluated students’ standpoints on public policy issues and their level of civic engagement.
A total of 2,649 students participated in the 2018 fall survey. The poll concluded that the top three most important national public policy issues are the cost of education, healthcare policy, and jobs, while policies related to taxation were rated the least important.
An overwhelming majority of students are registered to vote, and are very likely to vote in the 2018 midterm elections. Approximately 75 percent of regional students are registered to vote in any location within the United States, with registration rates rising to 90 percent for students over the age of 19.
This voter enthusiasm, however, did not translate into primary election participation. Approximately 36 percent of students are registered Democrats, followed by Republicans at 28 percent, unaffiliated voters at 25 percent.
Students feel reasonably well-informed about current events, crediting the internet, television, and their friends over newspapers, radio, or smartphone apps.
Other themes include students’ perceptions of the direction of the country and Pennsylvania and also their level of participation in volunteerism.
The candidates
Governor
Tom Wolf, Democrat
Scott Wagner, Republican
Paul Glover, Green
Kenneth V. Krawchuk, Libertarian
U.S. Senate
Robert P. Casey, Jr., Democrat
Louis J. Barletta, Republican
Neal Taylor Gale, Green
Dale R. Kerns, Jr., Libertarian
8th Congressional District
Matthew Alton Cartwright, Democrat
John Robert Chrin, Republican
9th Congressional District
Dennis Wolff, Democrat
Daniel Meuser, Republican
State Sena
14th District
John T. Yudichak, Democrat
Unopposed
20th District
Lisa Baker, Republican
John J. Sweeney, Green
22nd District
John P. Blake, Democrat
Frank J. Scavo, III, Republican
State House
116th District
Tarah C. Toohil, Republican
Unopposed
117th District
Karen Boback, Republican
Lou Jasikoff, Libertarian
118th District
Michael B. Carroll, Democrat
Unopposed
119th District
Gerald J. Mullery, Democrat
Justin V. Behrens, Republican
120th District
Aaron D. Kaufer, Republican
Unopposed
121st District
Edwin A. Pashinski, Democrat
Susan Henry, Republican