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PLAINS TWP. — Jay Bryson, a global economist with Wells Fargo, said in the world of economic development, Northeastern Pennsylvania “hits a lot of singles.”

Bryson was the featured speaker Thursday at the Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber of Commerce/Greater Scranton Chamber of Commerce 2019 Economic Outlook breakfast at The Woodlands Inn.

Based in Charlotte, North Carolina, Bryson has published in various academic and economic journals. His comments on the economy regularly appear in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and USA Today. He also makes frequent appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

“You don’t hit a lot of home runs,” Bryson said of this area. “But you don’t have a lot of struggles — you have a lot of positives here.”

As a result, Bryson said there should not be a significant downturn in the local economy.

“You’re not like Las Vegas,” he said. “Las Vegas is all about tourism. So whenever there is a downturn in the economy, things like family vacations are affected. You don’t have that worry here. The economy here is steady as she goes.”

Bryson said real growth in gross national product has slowed over the past few quarters and it appears that housing starts have flattened.

Bryson began his presentation by saying 2018 was an economic roller coaster, with ups and downs, and 2019 has begun on the up side.

“But what’s to come?” he asked.

Bryson went through all the indicators and concluded that he and Wells Fargo, his employer, are not forecasting a recession anytime soon.

“Over the next two years, we see nothing on the horizon that would cause a significant downturn in the economy,” Bryson said.

With the current economic upswing, if the country can get to July without a downturn, he said it will be the longest advance since post World War II.

Meanwhile, export growth has slowed in recent quarters. But if China would institute retaliatory tariffs, the export of U.S. products, like soybeans, would suffer greatly, he said.

On another front, real consumer spending has decelerated a bit. But employment growth and the unemployment rate remain solid, plus the personal saving rate remains elevated. That gives consumers the ability to cushion any shocks to income.

Bryson also expects:

• Global GDP growth to slow over the next two years.

• The dollar to resume its downward trend in 2019.

Jay Bryson, a global economist with Wells Fargo, speaks at the 2019 Economic Outlook Breakfast at The Woodlands Inn on Thursday morning.
https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/web1_TTL032219chamber1.jpg.optimal.jpgJay Bryson, a global economist with Wells Fargo, speaks at the 2019 Economic Outlook Breakfast at The Woodlands Inn on Thursday morning. Aimee Dilger | Times Leader

Jay Bryson, a global economist with Wells Fargo, offers his analysis at the 2019 Economic Outlook Breakfast, co-sponsored by the Greater Wilkes-Barre and Greater Scranton Chambers of Commerce. The event was held at The Woodlands Inn on Thursday morning.
https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/web1_TTL032219chamber2.jpg.optimal.jpgJay Bryson, a global economist with Wells Fargo, offers his analysis at the 2019 Economic Outlook Breakfast, co-sponsored by the Greater Wilkes-Barre and Greater Scranton Chambers of Commerce. The event was held at The Woodlands Inn on Thursday morning. Aimee Dilger | Times Leader

By Bill O’Boyle

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Reach Bill O’Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.