Ooms

Ooms

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WILKES-BARRE — Teri Ooms, executive director at The Institute for Public Policy and Economic Development at Wilkes University, this week said as a result of COVID and the new work from home options, Northeastern Pennsylvania may become a more attractive location for people because of the quality of life and being less dense.

“This is a great opportunity to market the region to attract talent,” Ooms said. “The age distribution of the two counties generally mirrored statewide trends.”

Ooms said older adults comprise a larger share of the population locally compared with the Commonwealth, however, and children make up a slightly smaller share. Ooms said this pattern has not changed drastically over the last several years. The relatively low ratio of children to senior citizens indicates potential challenges to the region’s future workforce, because there will be fewer residents to fill jobs as a large number of Baby Boomers retire.

“This, however, is a national challenge,” Ooms said. “Furthermore, the longer lifespans of many of today’s seniors means there will be an increased need for support services for older adults.”

Ooms added that businesses were experiencing difficulty attracting a workforce pre-COVID and this will again be an issue after the recovery phase. She said businesses need to re-think work and talent and evaluate more telecommuting, senior works and how to best appeal to Millennials and Gen Z.

“An older population means health care and social service needs will increase, as will the demand for accessible, yet affordable housing,” Ooms said.

Ooms went on to say that discussions with employers indicate there are job opportunities within many local businesses, yet they cannot attract the workforce.

“So there is definitely a disconnect,” Ooms said. “We expect to see industries where jobs may not come back to pre-COVID levels, but there is growth in other sectors and in new sectors.”

Demographics

The U.S. Census is the most accurate measure of population for a given geographic area. It is conducted once every 10 years, most recently in 2010. The 2020 Census effort is ongoing. The recorded populations in both Luzerne and Lackawanna counties decreased from 1990 to 2000, but increased slightly from 2000 to 2010. Both counties have seen slight declining trends since 2010, despite small increases in the most recent estimates in 2018.

Ooms said there are three components of population change — births, deaths, and migration. According to the latest data, birth rates in both Lackawanna and Luzerne counties have fluctuated from year to year but remain lower than in the Commonwealth as a whole.

“This is a national trend,” Ooms said. “The birth rate has been down for almost two decades. Migration data is sourced from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Though both counties experienced times of significant net inflow driven by migration into the region from neighboring states, this trend reversed around 2012.”

In the subsequent years, Ooms said more residents left the region than entered, with higher outflow in Lackawanna County. Lackawanna County has continued this trend, though with lower net losses of population due to migration. Luzerne County has reverted to a small net gain in the most recent two years of data.

Over the full time period examined, Lackawanna County had a net loss of 4,577 and Luzerne County had a net gain of 2,826.

Although about 90 percent of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties’ total population has been white/Caucasian, Ooms said the percentage of residents who are white/Caucasian alone has declined since 2000. Racial and ethnic diversity has been increasing in the two counties. The growth of the Hispanic/Latino population has been considerable, doubling over the last decade and now eclipsing the statewide percentage in both counties. The percentage of Asian Americans in both counties has also grown substantially since 2000.

“This is incredibly positive, the more diverse a region — the more vibrant and therefore economically successful a region is,” Ooms said. “Racially and ethnic diversity bring new businesses, new events and culture. These are also opportunities to enhance tourism.”

Ooms said accurate statistics on population will continue to be significant when it comes to apportionment of legislative representation, allocation of state and federal funds, and generally remaining competitive as a region.

Ooms noted that the 2020 census is being conducted this year and a complete enumeration of the region’s population is critical. Several communities in both counties have been designated by the Census Bureau as Hard to Count, meaning that their mail return rates for census forms has been in the bottom 20 percentile.

“All stakeholders in the region must continue to educate community members about the Census,” Ooms said. “Currently, it is estimated that Luzerne County’s Census returns are about 60 percent. If we are not successful in improving this stat, the county will lose billions in education, health, and infrastructure dollars, just to name a few areas.”

Reach Bill O’Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.