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It’s still a recommendation and not a mandate, but the state unveiled additional guidance on how school districts should re-open this fall, basing the method of education on infection data for a school district’s county. The system defines county’s by COVID-19 infection risk: Low, moderate or substantial.

Using weekly data released by the state Department of Education Friday, Luzerne County would fall into the “moderate” category. The state recommends districts in a moderate county should use either blended (hybrid) instruction — some students in school while other learn remotely at home — or full remote learning.

Outgoing Education Secretary Pedro Rivera and Health Secretary Rachel Levine held a joint phone conference Monday with media to outline the recommendation and field questions. As in the past, both stressed districts must make decisions based on their own circumstances, but noted they had received requests for more guidance, prompting the addition.

Districts are encouraged to use one of three systems of education based on how their county ranks. Those in “low” counties should consider full in-person instruction for all students or a “blended” system with some students in school while others learn remotely at home. Districts in “moderate” counties should avoid full in-person instruction and use either a blended model or remote-only learning, while those in “substantial” counties should use remote-only learning.

The county categorization is based on two metrics: the number of new COVID-19 cases over seven days per 100,000 residents, and the percent of those tested that are positive. If the former is below 10 and the latter is less than 5%, a county is classified as low, though Levine said in sparsely populated counties where the small number of residents can skew percentages, a county may be deemed low solely based on the number of new infections.

While the low category requires a county to meet thresholds in both metrics, the moderate and substantial categories are met if either metric hits a specific threshold.

If a county’s 7-day total of positive cases per 100,000 residents is greater than 100 or the positivity rate is greater than 10%, it is classified as substantial. If the 7 day total is 10 or higher but below 100 or if the positivity rate is 5% or greater but below 10%, a county is dubbed moderate.

The majority of Luzerne County’s 11 school districts so far have opted for a blended plan that will keep about half the students home learning online while the other half go to school, with the two groups alternating daily or weekly. That move allows most schools to keep students the recommended six feet apart in the classroom.

So far Hanover Area and Hazleton Area have decided to begin the school year with fully-remote instruction, with the possibility of moving to a hybrid system several weeks later.

Last month Dallas School District announced plan to re-open with an “in-person restricted plan,” that will bring all students back in the buildings “with significant modifications.”

But all local districts have repeatedly stressed plans can change depending on state and federal guidance and the spread of COVID-19. The number of new cases in Luzerne County increased in the last two weeks, though ZIP code data so far suggests the majority of that increase has been happening in the Hazleton Area.

Rivera noted neither he nor Levine could make the recommendations mandatory. “That would require legislative action,” he said. And both said as a result they won’t be able to penalize districts that ignore the recommendations. But they added that they work closely with districts to help them make a choice.

Levine said right now only Union county is in the substantial category, and that after the state looked closer at the data it determined an infection outbreak at a federal prison is causing a spike in infections there. But she also pointed out that doesn’t mean people outside the prison aren’t at higher risk. While prisoners don’t leave, staff and others do come and go.

There are 41 counties classified as moderate and 25 as low.

Levine acknowledged that some districts in a county could be at low risk while others are higher — ZIP code data, for example, shows much lower numbers of infections for Dallas than for Hazleton Area. But while the state will help districts consider their options, there is no plan to make the three-category system any narrower than at the county level. She encouraged districts to “use the most conservative part of the recommendations.”

Rivera discouraged districts from “bouncing around” among modes of instruction if the infection numbers fluctuate in a a county. He said districts should look at a minimum of two weeks data before changing methods, and probably should avoid switching any more often than quarter to quarter.

Levine stressed that there is one caveat: “If there was a serious outbreak of community transmission rapidly progressing, we would do a deep dive and call the districts to make a recommendation to go fully remote if we were very concerned about rapid transmission.”

Rivera said that, while the two metrics used to categorize a county are important, districts should consider other factors in deciding what to do, including the number of students and teachers who may be at higher risk of getting COVID-19 due to existing health conditions, the space they have in a building, and the number of students who may require more intensive instruction than others.

Reach Mark Guydish at 570-991-6112 or on Twitter @TLMarkGuydish