Locals weigh in with debate expectations

WILKES-BARRE — Political consultant Ed Mitchell Monday said you can expect one thing at tonight’s presidential debate.

“Trump will be toxic,” Mitchell said.

President Donald Trump, the Republican seeking his second term, will square of against his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, in the first of three nationally televised debates.

The debate is set for 9 p.m.

“I think he’ll attack Biden all night — personally and professionally,” Mitchell said of Trump’s plan. “He will try to distract from COVID, and somehow attempt to delegitimize the income tax story. Doing that will be pretty challenging unless he releases his taxes and they disprove the (New York) Times reporting. Don’t count on that.”

Mitchell said he doesn’t think Biden will take Trump’s bait.

“In the end, Biden will appear presidential, reassuring and the perfect antidote to the poison Trump has injected in the nation,” Mitchell said.

SCOTUS focus

Jeff Brauer, political science professor at Keystone College, said given the timing, much of the news cycle around the debate will be on the Supreme Court fight over Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement.

“So far, Biden and the Democrats are misplaying the politics of this,” Brauer said. “First, Democrats are also being hypocritical as they too were arguing the opposite in 2016. Second, if they wanted to replace Ginsburg with a liberal, she should have retired during President Obama’s terms.”

Most importantly, Brauer said Democrats can’t win this fight.

“They should let the Republicans do their thing and then let the public decide on its wisdom or not,” Brauer said. “Otherwise, Democrats should concentrate on the fights they can win — the Presidency and Senate. They need to focus all their efforts on those. This is just serving as a distraction in what was otherwise an election cycle going very well for Democrats. Biden, in particular, can’t let Trump change the narrative with this Supreme Court pick.”

As far as the debate itself, Brauer said Biden needs to stay focused on the Trump administration’s mishandling of the pandemic and all the fallout from it.

“In 2018, health care drove voter turnout,” he said. “It will again in 2020, especially with the pandemic.”

Brauer said Trump will try to make Biden look feeble and weak and will call into question his mental and physical abilities to serve as the commander-in-chief.

“If Biden can avoid those traps and gaffes and stay on message, he will be deemed the ‘winner’ of the debate,” Brauer said. “Otherwise, Trump will ‘win’ the night.”

Undoubtedly, Brauer said Trump’s taxes will also be an issue for this debate.

“Trump will call it fake news and say no one cares except the media,” Brauer said. “Biden will use it to bolster his Scranton vs Wall Street argument.”

‘Unlike anything ever seen’

Brian F. Carso, J.D., Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of History and Government and director of the Honors Program at Misericordia University. He said he feels the debate will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen, both in terms of format and content. There will be a single moderator, and an empty, or mostly empty, auditorium.

“Joe Biden is a practiced debater, both as a candidate and as a long-time senator,” Carso said. “As such he naturally respects the decorum of debate, which will be very different from Donald Trump’s approach.”

Carso said Trump is not a practiced debater, and by all accounts, he’s not doing any intensive prep.

“This is a common trap for incumbents, who believe that occupying the Oval Office is all the prep they need,” Carso said. “But this kind of event requires a great deal of preparation, and incumbents ignore that at their peril.”

Carso said he expects Trump to be up against the ropes from the start, and likely to get rattled.

“He is behind in the polls,” Carso said. “He will be reminded repeatedly of several numbers — 200,000 dead from COVID-19, 13.5 million unemployed, and $750 — the amount he paid in federal income tax. Without a coherent rebuttal, his rhetoric will flail around while looking to land a punch. He will certainly make accusations against Biden’s son, Hunter, and accuse Biden of coddling China.”

Carso said Biden will need to avoid the trap of fighting Trump’s accusations and fact-checking his falsehoods.

“Let the moderator fact-check,” he said. “Instead, Biden should relentlessly attack Trump’s failings and repeat those numbers — 200,000 dead, 13.5 million unemployed, $750 in taxes. He should vividly illustrate the policy differences between a Biden presidency and a Trump second term, especially on the topic of health care. He should remind Americans that his demeanor is presidential, while Trump’s is not.”

Carso said if, indeed, Trump gets badly rattled, “I would not count on his participation in future debates. There are no norms at work anymore.”

Touching all the bases

Benjamin Toll, Ph.D., assistant Professor of Political Science at Wilkes University, said viewers can expect to see a debate that hits on all the themes that both presidential candidates are hoping to focus on.

“President Trump will attempt to focus on the economy before the COVID crisis hit, the importance of filling the vacant Supreme Court seat, and his stated concerns with the mail-in ballots,” Toll said. “I would expect to see the recent case from Luzerne County brought up by President Trump.

“Biden, on the other hand, will attempt to place the 200,000 dead squarely on President Trump, while also highlighting the duplicity of Republicans with the Supreme Court vacancy in 2016 and the current one.

Toll said he expects to see both candidates attempt to portray the other candidate as out of step with the American people and against a successful recovery with COVID.

“Whether it will change anyone’s mind is a different question entirely,” Toll said. “I expect to see that supporters of President Trump believe that he won the debate, and Vice President Biden’s supporters to do the same.”