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SCRANTON — If Pennsylvania’s economy is going to make a comeback, it won’t be through manufacturing, according to Jay Bryson, a nationally known global economist at Wells Fargo Securities.

Bryson was the featured speaker at Wednesday’s Economic Outlook Luncheon, co-sponsored by the Greater Scranton Chamber of Commerce and the Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber of Commerce. The event was held at the Hilton Scranton & Conference Center.

“Manufacturing is not going to do it,” Bryson said before addressing the 150 in attendance. “We’re not going back to 1955.”

Bryson explained that if a factory that employed 500 in the 1950s or ’60s would re-open today, it would probably only need 100 employees because of improved technology.

Bryson is based in Charlotte, N.C. His comments on the economy regularly appear in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and USA Today. He also makes frequent appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Education key

Bryson said the key to bringing the region’s unemployment rate down is education — the workforce needs to be re-trained to acquire the skills necessary in today’s job market. He said more and more jobs are needed in the trades, like plumbing or carpentry.

“There are lots of good jobs out there,” he said.

Bryson said the region has a relatively low cost of living, which offers some incentive to young people wanting to remain here after high school or college. He said the key to attracting large companies is offering them incentives.

Bryson talked about the nation’s economy and how it has steadily expanded for about nine years. He expects that to continue for at least two or three more years.

“But it won’t last forever,” Bryson said. “There is some risk out there, like inflation. The Federal Reserve Board is meeting today and they could announce an increase in interest rates. That will affect the economy.”

Bryson was on target — the Fed later announced it is raising its benchmark interest rate to reflect a solid U.S. economy.

The Fed said it expects to increase rates twice more this year. At the same time, it increased its estimate for rate hikes in 2019 from two to three.

Bryson said the economy has been growing at a rate of 2.5 percent. He said that could increase to 2.75 percent, or even 3 percent.

“And some think that growth rate can be sustained,” Bryson said. “Could it? Sure, but I’ll take the under.”

‘Real challenge’

Bryson said the nation has seen a gradual decline in labor growth, due mostly from a decline in population growth. He said even if there was an upswing in population growth, it wouldn’t have an impact on the labor force for 18 to 20 years.

“That could be offset by an increase in immigration,” Bryson said. “Call me a skeptic, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.”

Bryson also talked about technological advances, such as robotics and artificial intelligence.

“That will be a game-changer,” Bryson said. “But we won’t see any significant impact for five to 10 years.”

He also discussed debt, stating the only way to reduce it is by cutting spending. However, he says about 70 percent of the federal budget goes to areas that are “politically untouchable,” such as entitlement programs, national defense and pensions.

“So if you want to cut spending, fine — just tell me where,” he said. “It’s a real challenge.”

Jay Bryson, managing director and global economist for Wells Fargo Securities LLC, delivers a talk on economic growth to members of the Greater Scranton and Greater Wilkes-Barre Chambers of Commerce during the Economic Outlook Luncheon at the Hilton Scranton & Conference Center on Wednesday.
https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/web1_TTL032218EconomicLunch_2-2.jpg.optimal.jpgJay Bryson, managing director and global economist for Wells Fargo Securities LLC, delivers a talk on economic growth to members of the Greater Scranton and Greater Wilkes-Barre Chambers of Commerce during the Economic Outlook Luncheon at the Hilton Scranton & Conference Center on Wednesday. Bill Tarutis | For Times Leader

Members of the Greater Scranton and Greater Wilkes-Barre Chambers of Commerce listen to featured speaker Jay Bryson during the Economic Outlook Luncheon at the Hilton Scranton & Conference Center on Wednesday.
https://www.timesleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/web1_TTL032218EconomicLunch_4-2.jpg.optimal.jpgMembers of the Greater Scranton and Greater Wilkes-Barre Chambers of Commerce listen to featured speaker Jay Bryson during the Economic Outlook Luncheon at the Hilton Scranton & Conference Center on Wednesday. Bill Tarutis | For Times Leader

By Bill O’Boyle

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Reach Bill O’Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.