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You may have missed it, what with a “polar vortex” bringing sub-zero temperatures at night and single digits by day, and another Patriot Bowl — er, Super Bowl — crowding the headlines this week, but Saturday was Groundhog Day, and Punxsutawney Phil, that portly purveyor of primavera prognostications proudly pronounced that winter will last another (drum roll) …
Oh, seriously, who cares. For starters, there’s the simple question of definition: When does winter actually end if not with something reasonably concrete like the vernal equinox, that March moment when day and night are equal and the promise of more sunshine per 24 hours can be cosmically fulfilled? Or on the first day of the fourth month, neatly dividing seasons by one-quarter of a year?
What mysterious metric does Phil employ in pronouncing six more weeks versus two more weeks? The last snowfall seems inapt as we routinely have some flakes in March and April. A minimum number of days above a chosen temperature — 40 degrees, say — seems capricious. By that measure, Harvey’s Lake could be in spring while Harding continues in winter.
And as the sudden departure of the latest deep freeze demonstrates, determining the end of winter by how widely temperatures swing would be unwise. That is, if one pronounced that spring occurs with a change of 40 or 50 degrees, today could easily count as spring when compared to Friday morning’s below-zero temps. Phil doesn’t offer a “two more days of winter” option.’
Then there’s the success rate of this particular rodent. Again, it hinges on the definition of winter ending, but studies routinely declare him so inaccurate he could never hold a job long as a television forecaster. A data review posted Friday by the Staten Island (N.Y.) Advance declared Phil pretty much an abject failure, determining that in the last 29 years he was correct only 13 times. Flip a coin, you’ll probably have better luck.
The same article (on silive.com) also noted Phil favors long-winter warnings. Since 1887, he has predicted delayed springs 104 times, and early springs only 18 times. Those numbers are backed by various other reports.
Of course, the Big Apple borough has its own Marmota monax in this mix: Staten Island Chuck, whom — the same website contends — has a 78 percent accuracy rate. It’s worth pointing on that Charles G. Hogg, as he is formally dubbed, has only been soothsaying spring since 1981. Phil has nearly a century more in the realm of rodent shadow reading.
Here’s the thing: Spring can be incredibly relative, as today surely will prove. After enduring a brutal cold streak this week, anything above 30 seems absolutely balmy to most of us.
It doesn’t matter how much winter weather this woodchuck chucked. Like much of the nation, we spent the last few days bulwarked against the brutish blast of arctic air. By comparison, the 10-day forecast of highs at or above freezing is as good as spring.
Forget the furry forecaster; go out and remember what it’s like to breath fresh air without frostbite nipping at your nose.