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Well? Has your bracket been busted?
At this point, even after just two rounds, the answer is more likely to be “yes” than “no.” Over the course of the last four days, the NCAA Tournament has chewed up and spit out teams like Virginia, Arizona and two No. 1 seeds: Kansas, the team with the most future money on it to win the whole thing, and Purdue.
Purdue, if you missed it (and you didn’t), got bounced by the mighty Knights of Fairleigh Dickinson University in the second-ever No. 16 over No. 1 upset in almost 40 years of the tournament’s current format.
So yeah, if you’re still kicking heading into the Sweet Sixteen, you’ve earned it. At the time of writing, my Final Four is still hanging in there: Alabama and Texas have punched their tickets to the second weekend, and Marquette and Gonzaga re hoping to do so Sunday evening.
Obviously, this is a gambling column, and sports betting has permeated just about every corner of the sports world, but there’s still something pure about a March Madness bracket. As much as I’ve come to enjoy betting on the games one-by-one over the last few years, sometimes it’s just as fun to sit back and just root for the teams you need to survive and advance.
Of course, at the end of the day, you’re probably making money if you win your pool, so it’s really all a gamble, isn’t it?
We’re in a sweet, sweet spot for sports fans right now. NCAA Tournament in full swing, the World Baseball Classic is into the semifinals, the MLB regular season is just a few weeks away, as is the Masters. If you prefer your sports to be of the scripted variety, WrestleMania weekend is fast approaching, as well.
In fact, while I’ll have a few more college basketball picks for you here (2-1 last week; Fairleigh Dickinson handled Texas Southern with ease, Creighton covered but Utah State blew the perfect week), I also have a WBC play that I like.
Variety is the spice of life, so they say. Let’s ride.
World Baseball Classic: Team Japan (-245) vs. Team Mexico — Monday 7 p.m.
Pick: OVER 8 runs
The WBC is down to its final four teams: the United States and Cuba squared off last night, and Japan and Mexico will play this evening.
Team Japan is a big moneyline favorite, and even on the runline, they’re clocking in at -1.5 (-135). It’s hard to look at that as value, but I’m not confident enough in Team Mexico to hop on them at +205, or even on the runline.
But I do love taking the over here and settling in for a semifinal shootout.
The run scoring has been at a high during this tournament; in the four quarterfinal games, the lowest run total was seven, in the Australia-Cuba matchup.
Team Japan has scored at least eight runs in four of their five games so far this tournament. They’ve been knocking the cover off the ball, albeit with a pretty easy group schedule and a pretty soft matchup in the quarters.
Mexico has cleared eight runs twice on their own, including an 11-run outburst against the United States.
I think the pitch count rules, limiting starter innings and forcing managers to get crafty with their bullpen usage, has played a part in the run scoring. Even if a starting pitcher gets into a groove, they’re likely only to last four or five innings, and then you get guys out of the bullpen early and hitters have been locking in a bit better.
It should be a fun game, and I think the over should clear here.
NCAA Tournament: No. 3 Xavier (+3.5) vs. No. 2 Texas — Time TBD
Pick: Texas -3.5
Looking ahead to the Sweet Sixteen, and we’ve got a great-looking matchup here between Xavier and Texas.
I’m going to put a disclaimer on this one: like I’m sure a lot of people do, I’m trying to promote some synergy here between my bets and my bracket. I have the Longhorns as a Final Four team, so there’s a bit of bias here. I feel like that’s pretty big of me to own up to that.
Both these teams had great regular seasons, obviously, but I was really impressed with Texas, losing their head coach after just a couple games and coming back even stronger. Navigating and winning a Big 12 Tournament is no easy feat, and they clobbered Kansas to do it.
In the Big Dance, the Longhorns made easy work of Colgate and then held on in a close game with Penn State to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
On the other hand, Xavier has been a bit all over the place: after getting thumped in their own conference title game, the Musketeers almost got bounced by 14-seed Kennesaw State in the first round, needing to overcome a double-digit deficit in the second half to survive.
Against 11-seed Pitt in the second round, Xavier looked much better, but let Pitt hang around and close what had been a 20-point lead to as many as seven points late in the game.
They’re a streaky team this tournament, but they’re going to need 40 consistent minutes of basketball here, and I don’t think they have it.