On the Money: Here’s your first Final Four prediction of the week

This March has certainly lived up to the “Madness” label so far.

As I sit to write this, we have one Final Four matchup set in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. It’s San Diego State and Florida Atlantic.

If you had that picked right, I’m sending the police to your house.

We’ve seen an Elite Eight round that, for the first time ever, featured no No. 1 seeds, after they were all bounced at various points.

On the women’s side of things, while not a top seed this year the UConn women got knocked out by Ohio State in the Sweet 16, ending an absurd streak of 14 straight Final Four appearances for the Huskies.

Imagine making it to the Final Four that many times in a row. Most programs, men’s and women’s, probably haven’t been there 14 times total.

So right now, we’re on the cusp of wrapping up college basketball season, with a number of wildly different endings in store for the men’s tourney. One way or the other, the national championship game will have a mid-major presence, which is just wonderful.

It’s also just about time for baseball season, with Opening Day coming up on Thursday. Unfortunately, there don’t appear to be any lines available for those games yet, with Spring Training still finishing up.

So let’s enjoy the last few meaningful basketball games we have left. I went 2-0 last week; the over in the Japan-Mexico World Baseball Classic semifinals came through, as did Texas with a pretty easy cover over Xavier in the Sweet 16.

At some point, maybe next week, I’ll go back and add up my record to date this year.

For now, picks.

Final Four: Florida Atlantic (+1.5) vs. San Diego State — Saturday, 6:09 p.m.

Pick: Florida Atlantic ML

I just sat and stared at this matchup for a long time. A long time.

Part of me just wanted to soak it in and appreciate what we’ve got here: Two teams that have never made it to this stage, one team (FAU) that had never even won a tournament game before this year.

The Aztecs defense has been so impressive on this tournament run, shutting down four pretty high-octane offenses in a row to make it to Houston for the Final Four.

On the other side, Florida Atlantic has won big, they’ve won ugly but they’ve rarely looked rattled and are playing way beyond their No. 9 seed (to be fair, this team has played above that level all year).

I think they’re the better team here, and while I anticipate that the line will come down to more of a pick ‘em by Saturday’s tip, I’m riding with the Owls here, straight up.

San Diego State has played such good defense, particularly against the three-pointer, and Florida Atlantic is a team that likes to take the three, sixth in the nation this season at three-point attempts.

Something has to give, right? I think for the first time this tournament, the Aztecs might be primed to give up some good looks outside. A large part of that, for me, stems from the interior presence of Owls big man Vladislav Goldin, who has been a terror for opposing defenses this season.

Not only does he demand more attention in the paint than any big SDSU has seen this far, but he also creates a number of second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass, and open threes often come when the defense gets caught out of sync, like after an offensive board, perhaps.

Plus, Florida Atlantic is also a strong defensive team in their own right, and has shown that they could pour it on late when needed, as they’ve done all tournament long.

The Owls have earned some respect, why fade them now?

NIT Semifinals: Wisconsin (+1.5) vs. North Texas — Tuesday, 7 p.m.

Pick: North Texas -1.5

Conference USA is having a moment this March. Obviously, much has been made of the incredible run Florida Atlantic has made to the Final Four, as it should be.

But the conference has already won the College Basketball Invitational tournament with Charlotte taking the trophy (not that anyone should really care about this tournament, but for the sake of the narrative, let’s include it).

And on Tuesday night, the league has a chance to lock up an all-Conference USA final in the NIT, with North Texas in one semifinal and UAB in the other.

The Mean Green find themselves locking up with Wisconsin, a 17-14 middling Big Ten team that has surged a bit here in the NIT field, with wins over Bradley, Liberty and Oregon.

North Texas’s path to the semis includes wins over Alcorn State, Sam Houston State and Oklahoma State, probably not as nice a list of wins as Wisconsin has.

But I love the Mean Green here, in a game that may be among the slowest-paced you’ll see all year in college hoops.

Both these teams love to go slow, and lean on their defenses to keep scoring at a minimum. Incidentally, the total for this game is currently at 114.5, about as low as you’ll see anywhere.

North Texas holds a significant edge in a few key categories: offensive rebounds per game (three more per game than Wisconsin, who is among the nation’s worst on the offensive glass) and in three-point percentage.

They both rank about the same in actual made threes per game, but if Wisconsin is going to come up with more empty possessions off threes, then that’s good news for North Texas.

Really, I’m just bought in to this Mean Green team being better. It’s that simple. Both ends of the floor, give me North Texas over Wisconsin.