Click here to subscribe today or Login.
The weather outside may have skipped spring and landed straight into summer, but the sporting calendar is right where it’s supposed to be as we head through April into May.
The beginning of the month saw the NCAA Tournament reach its conclusion, and last weekend saw Jon Rahm win the green jacket at The Masters. Now, those events are replaced with playoffs in the NBA (underway on Saturday, not counting the play-in games) and the NHL (starting today).
For someone like me who doesn’t bet those two sports often (though I do tend to jump on the NBA bandwagon in the playoffs and do, in fact, have a play coming up in this column), we’re also at a great point in the baseball season.
Betting the MLB, or really any sport to be fair, in the opening weeks is not an easy task. It’s probably tougher in baseball than any other sport because anybody could beat anybody on any given day, and it’s near impossible to get a good read on any ballclubs so early on.
I mean, just look at these early standings. Teams like the Cardinals and Phillies are treading water; perennial cellar-dwellers like the Rangers and the Pirates have gotten out to hot starts.
But by now, I think seasoned bettors could get a sense on which of these teams might be just running hot or cold, and which teams were over or undervalued.
I wouldn’t call myself “seasoned.” If I was used to cook up your steak at Longhorn, you’d probably send it back. But I’ve always been confident in my ability to read teams early and start finding good value.
So that’s what we’re going to do.
Tampa Bay Rays (-137) vs. Cincinnati Reds — Monday, 6:40 p.m.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+120)
Here’s some value for you: the Rays are 14-2, the best record in baseball. On the runline, the Rays are 13-3, again the best team in baseball. The Rays have scored 114 runs through those first 16 games, best in the game.
They’re a team that could score in bunches, and they’re running up against a young starting pitcher for Cincy in Hunter Greene who’s been knocked around in his first couple starts to the tune of a 5.14 ERA.
It’s a bit early to be THAT judgemental on ERA alone, but it’s a bad matchup for Greene, against a Rays lineup both powerful (leading the league in homers) and patient (56 walks drawn so far).
The reason why this line (and the moneyline) aren’t longer is because the Rays are throwing a bullpen game, with Jalen Beeks set to open and Taj Bradley likely to follow.
But I don’t think it will matter. Take the Rays.
Brooklyn Nets (+10) vs. Philadelphia 76ers — Monday, 7:30 p.m.
Pick: 76ers -10
Right off the bat, I think this number will come down maybe a point, so if you could get on Philly lower, fire away.
When I first saw this line, my initial thought was to take Brooklyn, and my reasoning was just that 10 points seemed like a lot for a playoff game.
Now, I think I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating: I don’t keep up with the NBA much during the regular season. That’s a good disclaimer for anyone who reads this, I’m not very strong in this particular league.
Anyway, I had to remind myself that: 1.) the Nets traded away James Harden last year — to the Sixers; 2.) the Nets traded away Kevin Durant to the Suns this year; and 3.) the Nets traded Kyrie Irving to Dallas this year.
No offense to those still left in Brooklyn, but that’s an insane amount of production out the door.
Meanwhile, the Sixers have the potential league MVP in Joel Embiid, Harden running the show at point guard, an array of solid wings and some really good team chemistry.
They clobbered the Nets by 20 on Saturday, I don’t see why they shouldn’t do it again.