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Don’t look now, folks — but I think I made a little bit of headway last week.
It sure didn’t look like it on paper: my picks across college and pro football went 2-5 a week ago. You might not be so good at math, but I’m an expert with numbers, so I am uniquely qualified to tell you all that 2-5 isn’t good.
I also had my heart ripped out of my chest and stomped on watching my beloved Notre Dame football lose on a walk-off touchdown at home against Ohio State.
But, I smile through the pain. Because there’s some genuine optimism running through my brain. (That’s poetry right there.)
While my college picks were pretty much all bad (shoutout to Air Force for coming through for me), I did get on the board with the Miami Dolphins, my first NFL winner of the year. It only took three weeks!
I think I’ll bounce back and level out in the college ranks, but I was getting worried about the NFL. In addition to my losers in this column, I also took a very quick 0-2 exit in a survivor pool I do each year. My feel for the board was in question, but I think we’re on our way.
Fingers crossed, but here’s the weekly slate.
Memphis -3 vs. Boise State — 4 p.m., ESPN2
After suffering their first loss of the season last week at Missouri, I like Memphis to bounce back here at home against Boise State.
It’s largely based on the advantage I see with the Tigers’ passing game, led by quarterback Seth Henigan, going up against a pretty rough Boise State secondary.
Henigan’s thrown for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns so far this year, cracking the Top 25 QB’s in the nation for pass yards. He’s also thrown five picks — but two of those came last week against Mizzou, a down game for the quarterback against a stout SEC defense.
Boise State’s defense is not SEC-level. It’s not Mountain West level, to be frank. The Broncos have allowed 430 yards a game through their first four games and eight yards per play so far this year, 132nd out of 133 FBS teams. Against the pass, Boise is allowing 11.6 yards per attempt.
I think the Tigers will throw and throw and throw, and the Boise State offense won’t be able to keep up. Quarterback Talen Green has been an effective runner but a pretty miserable passer this year, and if this game turns into a track meet, he’ll be in some trouble.
Southern Miss +5.5 vs. Texas State — 7 p.m., ESPN+
There’s not a whole lot to love about the Southern Miss Golden Eagles this year, I’ll address that right now. They’re 1-3, they’ve lost three straight, the only game they’ve covered was a win over FCS Alcorn State.
Here, they’re getting 5.5 points at home against 3-1 Texas State, most known this year for opening the season with a win at Baylor.
The Golden Eagles lost their Sun Belt opener last week at Arkansas State, but hidden behind that score was a very encouraging stat line from running back Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 132 yards and a touchdown.
Gore has been such a vital part of the Southern Miss offense for four years now, and coming off nearly 1,400 yards rushing in 2022, his relative absence from the box score has been troubling for fans of the program.
But he finally got going last week, and I’m thinking (hoping? praying?) that Gore will keep his momentum going against a relatively soft Texas State defense.
The Bobcats will be able to score a bunch here, so Southern Miss will need to keep up. But I think they will.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons — Sunday, 9:30 a.m., ESPN+
No, that time stamp is not a typo. It’s the Jaguars’ annual trip to London — and this time, the game will have an alternate broadcast in which the players are animated in the style of Toy Story.
Seriously, that’s no joke.
I don’t think the Jags are a joke this year either, even sitting at 1-2 coming off a loss to the Houston Texans. But they are definitely a team stuck in first gear, and after a trip to the playoffs last season, they’re going to need to figure it out if they want to return to the postseason.
Fortunately, I think they’re going to be fine — Trevor Lawrence has been a little off his game so far, but the Falcons defense should provide a nice opportunity for both him and running back Travis Etienne to get cooking.
Atlanta’s a surprising 2-1, but didn’t look very sharp in a loss to Detroit last week, and the offense has been very one-dimensional. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will give the Jags trouble, but Desmond Ridder just isn’t the guy the Falcons need him to be to give them a chance to pass the ball effectively.
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders — Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Chargers have been a puzzle this year: a tight loss to a very good Dolphins team was followed by a loss to the Titans, and then overcame some bizarre decision-making by their own head coach to beat the Vikings.
This LA team may be good, they may be bad, but I do really like them here against a Raiders team who is unquestionably mediocre.
The Raiders’ Week 1 squeaker of a win over the Broncos looks less and less significant with each passing day; in the two weeks since, Las Vegas got thumped by the Bills and lost at home to the Steelers.
Josh Jacobs hasn’t done anything yet. Jimmy Garoppolo, after a solid first week, has thrown five picks in his last two games. Jimmy G is also not a lock to play on Sunday as he’s going through the concussion protocol, though it looks like he’ll be ready.
Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen got in serious rhythm last week, and without Mike Williams, he’ll be asked to keep it up. The Chargers might have Austin Ekeler back this week, which would help them run the ball and shore up the pass game, with him being such a pass-catching threat.
The Raiders are going backwards. The Chargers are going, at the very worst, sideways. Back the Bolts.