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We’re approaching the end of the road here as it pertains to college football season, but we’ve still got a few more big weekends ahead, and this one is a doozy.
It’s conference championship week, and instead of a massive, unwieldy schedule of games extending across the week, we get the best of the best squaring off, starting Friday night and continuing through Saturday.
Every game matters in some big way to someone, and you could bet that every game will have some heavy action on it.
I went 1-3 last week (20-24-2 overall now), and I’m beginning to fade a bit on college football (I’m on to basketball season in my head), but I feel as good about my college picks here as I have maybe all season.
Let’s take a look.
Washington +9.5 vs. Oregon
Pac-12 Championship
Friday, 8 p.m., FOX
This Friday night game to kick off championship week is a massive one — the winner of this game will punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff, barring some crazy decision-making on the part of the committee.
I’ve ridden with the Washington Huskies all season long — sometimes it’s worked, sometimes I’ve gotten burnt. But I’m not turning my back on UW now.
You might recall Washington beat Oregon earlier this year, handing the Ducks their only loss. Since then, the Huskies have skated by in a few games while Bo Nix has taken the lead in the Heisman race and Oregon has rolled through their competition.
I think this one ends up a shootout, like their first encounter, but I think the UW defense is being sold way short here. They’ve had hiccups but they’re a solid unit that will be able to make a few plays.
I’m seeing a finish that comes right down to the wire here, and I really don’t see a situation in which the Huskies lose by double-digits here.
Georgia -5.5 vs. Alabama
SEC Championship
Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS
This game has the potential to be a major fly in the ointment when it comes to the playoff picture, but I don’t see things shaking out that way.
An Alabama win would certainly make the lives of the CFP Committee members a bit more challenging: does Bama jump the line from No. 8 to get in? Does Georgia fall out of the top four with a loss?
I think people are talking themselves into taking Bama here because of what they’ve accomplished in the past decade or so, but this Tide team is not the same as those previous dynasty squads and Georgia appears to be the genuine article once again.
The Bulldogs did play down to their competition at points this year, but they’ve impressed in the big moments with wins over Missouri, Ole Miss by a million and Tennessee on the road.
I think the Bulldogs are playing their best ball right now, and I think they’ll give Jalen Milroe fits.
There will be no controversy. Georgia rolls here and locks up a spot in the playoff.
Lions -4.5 vs. Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
This one jumped out at me the minute I saw it.
The Lions are coming off a Thanksgiving loss to the Packers, but they’ve now had extra rest, time to regroup and a soft matchup against New Orleans.
A couple weeks ago, my rationale behind fading the Saints against the Vikings was that New Orleans had played a VERY soft schedule, the offense was weak and the defense was due to regress against some better competition.
Since then? They lost that game to Minnesota and then lost to the Falcons after a bye week. In that Atlanta game, the Saints gained 444 yards of offense but scored just 15 points, and the defense gave up nearly 400 yards to the Falcons offense (which is really just Bijan Robinson at this point).
All of that is to say: the Lions offense is very good and will be able to score, and I don’t see the Saints keeping up.
New Orleans has yet to cover a spread at home this season, and I don’t think this will be the first.
Broncos-Texans UNDER 47.5
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
I’ve been somewhat successful betting totals this season, a far cry from how I usually do, so here’s another one.
Two teams here that, maybe to the surprise of most, are right in the thick of the playoff race and playing good football.
The Broncos have won five in a row after a 1-5 start, they’ll head to Houston to see C.J. Stroud and the resurgent Texans.
The Houston defense hasn’t been too great this year, but I think The Texans will be able to hold their own here against Denver. The Broncos aren’t really built to rip off chunk plays and stretch the field — I’m banking on any scoring drives from them being slow and time-consuming.
On the flip side, the Broncos defense has shook the stench of an abysmal start to the year and have now settled in and helped win games.
This total is one of the highest of the week, and the under has been a smart play all season in the NFL. The under is 7-4 in Texans games, and 6-5 in Broncos games.
I like the number to stay low here.