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It’s the calm before the storm now, college football fans.
Bowl season is just around the corner — my favorite time of year. There’s nothing that gets me fired up quite like watching two 7-5 teams from opposite sides of the country come together and play a game in Hawaii. If a coach has mayo, Cheez-Its or french fries dumped on him for winning, you’ve got my attention.
That starts next Saturday, leaving us with just one game from now until then. It’s going to be a long couple days.
Of course, that one game is one of our great American traditions — the Army-Navy game, always in its own standalone window on the schedule.
We have to bet it, folks. It’s the American way.
I’ll have that, plus a few NFL games (I nailed both of my pro picks last week) to hold you over until we all get to enjoy the prestigious Myrtle Beach Bowl next weekend.
Army -2.5 vs. Navy
Saturday, 3 p.m., CBS
There hasn’t been a back-to-back winner in this series since 2018, when Army won its third in a row. I think the Black Knights, who won 20-17 last year in somehow the first overtime game ever played between Army and Navy, pull it out again this year.
Obviously, we know the styles at play here, it’s the triple option and running the ball, that’s the game. Army’s defense overall has been weaker this season, but the Black Knights have been playing better down the stretch.
Army has won three in a row, including a 23-3 win over Air Force, which had run roughshod over just about everyone to start the year.
On offense, there are a few tiny advantages for Army — they’re more efficient in the red zone, they score slightly more than Navy and they throw the ball a bit more, or at least a bit more effectively.
These Army-Navy games are largely a stalemate, with the winning team usually finding one or two big chunk plays to pull ahead. While both teams are among the worst in FBS when it comes to explosive plays, Army has had more plays of 10 yards or more than Navy, and I think they’ll have one or two more on Saturday.
Go Army.
Colts ML (+100) vs. Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
It’s very easy to become a prisoner of the moment. We all watched the Bengals, surely dead after losing Joe Burrow, crawl out of the grave with Jake Browning under center, leading Cincy to an overtime win over the Jags on Monday night.
I like Browning, I think he could keep the Bengals from turning into a disaster, but I doubt he replicates that success again here.
The Colts are definitely flying under the radar but they’ve won four in a row and are right in the thick of the playoff race, whether it be in the Wild Card or in the still-open AFC South.
Gardner Minshew hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been bad, either. The Colts lean on the run (even with Jonathan Taylor likely out with a thumb injury) and a defense that’s been in fine form.
This game could be a fun watch, it could be an absolute eyesore, but I think the Colts come out on top either way.
Chiefs -1.5 vs. Bills
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
A marquee matchup in the late afternoon window (probably the second-biggest game of the week behind Eagles-Cowboys), I like Patrick Mahomes to bounce back from a loss in Green Bay here.
Consider this: In his career so far, Mahomes is 17-3 in games following a loss. With a line this short, where I could only get burned if it’s a one-point game, I like that stat a lot.
I also think the Chiefs played a surprisingly tough team on Sunday night against the Packers in one of the most brutally tough places to play (Lambeau Field in December, disgusting) in the whole league.
The Bills have been a very Jekyll-and-Hyde type of ballclub all year, looking excellent in some spots and downright middling in others.
Head coach Sean McDermott is, to be fair, 5-0 coming off a bye week in his tenure with the Bills. But I feel like so many people are waiting for Buffalo to shake off the rust and become the Bills team that’s been in the top tier of the NFL the past few years.
I just don’t think they’re destined to get there this season. The Chiefs, while I have some concerns about whether or not they’re on the same level that’s won them two Super Bowls in the past four seasons, still have more upside for me.