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Remember last week when I said how much I loved bowl season?
What an idiot.
I whiffed on both of my bowl picks last week, neither of them (Georgia Southern and New Mexico State) came remotely close to covering, either.
In the age of opt outs and the transfer portal, these bowl games have become a nightmare to try and bet. Even if, like me, you have done your homework and know exactly who’s in and who’s out, at the end of the day it’s impossible to know how teams will respond to the changes.
Some wilt, but some (Ohio, for example) play some of their best ball of the year with a whole new cast of characters running the show.
It’s hard, but some brave hero needs to step up and continue to pick these games. I’ll gladly be that hero.
So let’s get back to work here.
James Madison -1.5 vs. Air Force — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
It’s the most prestigious bowl game of them all: the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.
All year long, we all yelled and shouted in support of James Madison, who went 11-1 but were not eligible (at least initially) for a bowl game because of their status as a program still transitioning to the FBS level.
The Dukes did get in, however, because there were not enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the spots. So here the Dukes stand, taking on the once-hot Air Force Falcons.
Air Force got off to a great start at 8-0, but have lost four in a row to end the year. The Falcons failed to cover in any of those four games.
They’ll also be without starting running back John Lee Eldridge, who hit the transfer portal. That’s a big hit for a service academy team that does almost all of its damage on the ground, though the triple option does allow for more than one ball carrier to get involved.
I like the Dukes to finish an outstanding year strong with a win here. JMU has a few key players in the transfer portal, BUT the word is that many of those players, including quarterback Jordan McCloud, are going to play anyway.
Northwestern +6.5 vs. Utah — Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
It’s the most prestigious bowl game of them all: the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl.
When you think back to the beginning of the year, it’s crazy to see Northwestern with seven wins playing in a bowl game this winter. The program went through such turmoil with the Pat Fitzgerald scandal, it seemed like rock bottom.
But the Wildcats dug down and, with the benefit of playing in the wasteland that is the Big Ten West, played themselves into this one against the Utes, who likely had designs on a bigger bowl game.
Utah’s kind of stumbled to the finish this year, losing three of their last five games (two of those were to Oregon and Washington, which could be excused, but the Utes got blown out by Arizona and skated by Colorado in that stretch).
Neither team looks to be hurt bad by transfers and opt-outs, but Utah will lose some depth on both sides of the ball.
This feels to me like a grind-it-out, ugly type of football game. Northwestern excels in that spot, and I think they’re going to come out with more to play for here.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44.5 — Sunday, 1 p.m. (FOX)
This is one of the highest totals of the weekend, and it feels out of place for a game between Gardner Minshew and Taylor Heinicke.
Not to knock Colts signal-caller Minshew, who’s done a very capable job and has Indy right in the mix of the AFC playoff picture. But it’s not like the Colts offense has been a juggernaut.
The Falcons are a mess, they’re turning back to Heinicke after Desmond Ridder proved, in his second stint as the starter this year, that he couldn’t get the job done.
Atlanta is, against all odds (one of my favorite Phil Collins songs), still in the hunt for the NFC South title and needs to keep pace with Tampa Bay and New Orleans.
I think both teams lean on their defenses here, the Colts will probably have more luck with that but I don’t expect them to light up the scoreboard.
San Francisco 49ers -5.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens — Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC)
This is as marquee as it gets: the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, both 11-3, on Monday Night Football. Two tricky offenses and two awesome defenses.
It’s a long trip out west for the Ravens, and they’ll be making it without Keaton Mitchell, who had really begun to shine in the Ravens’ backfield before tearing his ACL last week.
It’s a relatively large number of points to lay against a really good team, but the Niners are looking like a juggernaut out there, and they’re the healthier of the two teams.
No one in the league runs better from the QB position than Lamar Jackson, he’s in a class all his own, but I think the San Fran defense will benefit from matchups against Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray, two other dynamic running QBs, two of the last three weeks.
The Niners are too much of a finely-tuned machine right now to pick against them.