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It’s 2024, ladies and gentlemen. Happy New Year to all, if you believe in the passage of time.
My resolution this year is not win every single bet. I think we’re going to try leaving the losers in 2023, it’s a radical strategy but one that, I believe, shows great promise.
I ended the year on a cold streak, bowl season got the better of me on multiple occasions. In total, my record from the time I started writing my Friday column to my last column of the year was 26-32-3.
A legitimate resolution I have, as it pertains to this space, is to actually do a better a job keeping track of my record. Right now’s the easiest time to do that, we’re 0-0.
Undefeated, baby. I’ve never lost in 2024.
Here’s to a profitable and successful year for all, let’s try to get started on the right foot this week.
Washington +4.5 vs. Michigan
Monday, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
It’s the last stop on the college football train this year, and it should be a doozy.
Now, full disclosure: I have a Washington national title future still alive, so I need UW to win outright. I knew cashing out was never going to happen. I’ve come this far with the Huskies, and I’m not jumping ship now.
The thought to hedge with Michigan was floating around in my brain: the Wolverines will likely do some damage on the ground with Blake Corum against the Washington run defense, and Michigan’s own defense looked every bit like the best in the nation in their win over Alabama on New Year’s Day.
But this will be the best offense that Michigan has played all year, by a relatively comfortable margin. The Huskies have multiple elite receivers that will spread the Wolverines around, and UW will get a big boost from having Dillon Johnson available, even if he’s not 100%.
Sometimes you just feel it in your bones, and I feel like the Huskies, in the last football game ever to feature the Pac-12, are still being slept on a bit. I don’t think they’re 4.5 points worse than Michigan, and I think they’ll prove it.
Eagles -5 vs. Giants
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
This is always such a weird week to try and bet, navigating injury reports and seeing which teams are resting their starters and which teams still have something to play for.
The Eagles are locked into the playoffs, and can’t fall lower than the the first wild-card spot. But the NFC East title is still up for grabs, even if it’s something of a longshot. And, more importantly, I think the Birds are going to be looking for a get-right game ahead of the playoffs after a wicked tailspin these last few weeks.
There’s no better spot to course correct and reestablish themselves as a threat than at the Meadowlands against the Giants, who have lost three in a row and are just spinning the wheels trying to get to the offseason.
In their first meeting two weeks ago, the Eagles dominated the first half and led 20-3 at the break, but the defense let them down and let the Giants get back into that game.
Philly still won by eight, and I think they’ll be more prepared for Tyrod Taylor this time around with him being announced as the Week 18 starter.
This Eagles team has a lot of problems that need addressing fast, and might sink them in the playoffs, but I think they’ll stop the skid (at least for now) and beat up on the Giants.
Packers -3 vs. Bears
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
There’s a lot on the line here: the Packers could punch their playoff ticket with a win, and the Bears could spoil their biggest rival’s season and end their own on a high note.
I’ve been pretty high on the Bears all season, and they really are coming on strong to finish the year: wins in four of their last five games, including two wins over the NFC North’s two other teams in the Lions and the Vikings (both as 3-point underdogs, coincidentally enough).
But no matter what the records have been, the situations have been, it’s been a one-way rivalry for most of this century: since 2000, the Packers are 36-12 against the Bears, and haven’t lost to Chicago since 2018. Earlier this year, the Packers won in Chicago as an underdog by two touchdowns.
I think both these teams are better now than they were at that time, but I can’t talk myself into the Bears going to Lambeau Field and taking out the Packers.
Green Bay’s injury report early in the week was about a mile long, but with their season on the line, I expect major contributors like Jayden Reed and Christian Watson will do whatever it takes to suit up.