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By the time this column makes it to your doorstep, the single best day of the sporting calendar will have come and gone.
Good news, though: the second-best day of the year is upon us, and whether you’re on a hot streak from Thursday or looking to regroup and start fresh, Friday’s got you covered.
March Madness is in full swing, with wall-to-wall basketball from Thursday all the way through Sunday. I’m writing this on Wednesday because I’ve taken the whole Thursday-Sunday stretch off as to not be disturbed while I watch.
So maybe there were a whole bunch of crazy upsets on Thursday. Maybe it was a relatively chalky start to the tournament. Maybe I’ve made a nice bit of money, or maybe I’m down bad.
Friday’s a new day, and a great day to place some bets. I really think I’ve begun to lock in ahead of the tournament, and last week I gave you three winners (including a 8.5-point underdog in Mississippi State that won outright by double digits).
Let’s get to it.
Last Week: 3-0
YTD: 16-8
#9 Northwestern ML +124
vs. #8 Florida Atlantic
Friday, 12:15 p.m., CBS
Last year’s tournament darlings, Florida Atlantic is back this year after a run to the Final Four and a heartbreaking buzzer-beater loss there to San Diego State.
This year’s team is a seed line higher than last year, but I don’t think this team is any bit better than that, and I was a little surprised to see them favored over Northwestern.
FAU is outside the top 100 teams in the country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and they’re presented here with a matchup against one of the best scorers in the league, Northwestern’s Boo Buie.
Buie’s averaging just under 20 points per game, and shot 44% from three-point range this season. This Wildcats team had a wild year, losing to Chicago State but beating Purdue and Illinois, almost taking a second game from the Boilermakers on the road as well.
The general consensus when the bracket was released on Sunday was that Florida Atlantic, especially after getting knocked out of the AAC Tournament by eleventh-seed Temple in the semifinals, was seeded too high. I think we’ll see the consequences of that play out here in our first game of the day.
#11 New Mexico -2.5
vs. #6 Clemson
Friday, 3:10 p.m., TruTV
That’s right, you’re going to have to hunt down TruTV on your television for this one. But let’s be real, if you’re reading this Friday morning and you haven’t already committed the channel number to memory, you’re probably reading the wrong column.
If you’re not super tuned in to the sport this year, you might be surprised to see an 11-seed favored over their higher-seeded opponent, especially one from a conference like the ACC.
But the Mountain West, as evidenced by their six teams in the field, was one of the most hard-fought and fun leagues in the country this year, while the ACC has taken a step back.
Look no further than Virginia’s disastrous performance in the First Four, affirming the loud reactions of the people arguing that the Cavs didn’t belong in the field. It’s not a stretch to think they got in based on past glory and name pedigree.
Clemson was solidly in the field the whole while, but they’ve been rocky down the stretch with losses in three of their last four games to Notre Dame (bad team), Wake Forest (not bad but not a tournament team) and a blowout loss to Boston College (bad team).
New Mexico just went and, with a very tenuous spot on the bubble, won the Mountain West tournament to guarantee their spot. They’re a trendy pick for sure, and I try to avoid making the obvious picks when I can, but I can’t pass up the Lobos in a spot where I think they’ll roll.
#13 College of Charleston +9.5
vs. #4 Alabama
Friday, 7:35 p.m., TruTV
I have Charleston not just winning this game in my bracket, I have them advancing to the Sweet 16 with a win over Saint Mary’s in the second round. Maybe this is just me trying to manifest some positive energy for the Cougars, but I’m very confident that, at the very least, they will not let Alabama run away with this game.
The Cougars ran through the CAA regular season to earn the top seed but were tested the whole way through the conference tournament: they came back from down late to beat Towson in the semifinals, and survived Stony Brook in overtime to win the conference championship.
They’ve been battle tested, and they’ve won 12 in row. Charleston’s got five scorers who could get into double figures on any given night, led by third-year starter Reyne Smith at point guard. Everyone remembers this team for their run into the Top 25 last year, but they’ve been quietly just as good this year, though without the splashy non-conference wins of a year ago.
As much as I want former Hofstra star turned Alabama playmaker Aaron Estrada to get the win here, I don’t think Alabama plays enough defense to run this team out of the gym, even though they’ve got tons of weapons to do so.
The Tide have given up 100 points or more three times this season, including in two of their last three games. Charleston’s averaging 80 points a game coming out of a league that was more defensive-minded this year than it’s ever been.
Take the points, and go Cougs.