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If you like chalk, you probably had yourself a very fruitful week of March Madness.
All eight top seeds have made it to the Sweet 16, and only one double-digit seed managed to fight their way there — 11-seed North Carolina State, hardly your typical Cinderella team, though they are very fun to watch.
In the second round in particular, high seeds went 15-1 straight up and were 11-5 against the spread. If you were betting favorites, it was a heck of a start to the tournament for you.
But it’s looking a lot tougher now. As you read this on Friday, the first half of Sweet 16 games will have been played, and four more spots to the Elite Eight will be punched today.
The flipside to a chalky first two rounds is that just about every single game from here on out will feature heavyweights duking it out.
Madness! Let’s take a look at Friday’s schedule and try and find some winners. I went 1-2 last week, with an unbelievable bailout from Northwestern keeping me from a winless weekend. Shout-out to the Wildcats.
Last Week: 1-2
YTD: 17-10
Gonzaga +5.5 vs. Purdue
Friday, 7:39 p.m., TBS/TruTV
One of those heavyweight matchups I was referring to, these are two teams playing some really good basketball.
Gonzaga, the fourth seed in this region, was a trendy pick to get bounced in the first round — but the Zags smoked McNeese State, and followed that up by running Kansas out of the building in the second round.
Purdue, always on upset watch after losing to Fairleigh Dickinson last year, has been similarly dominant in wins over Grambling and Utah State.
It’s not too often that we get a tournament matchup that serves as a rematch from the regular season, but we have it here: the Boilermakers beat Gonzaga by 10 in Maui back in November.
I lean the Zags here because, while Purdue’s been really good all year and haven’t changed much as a unit, Gonzaga looks miles better now than they were back at that first meeting.
I expect Ryan Nembhard to have a much better shooting night this time around, and I like Graham Ike to be a tough, physical presence down low to combat Zach Edey’s size and strength advantages.
You can’t shut down Edey, but you can bother him and get him out of his groove, and I think Gonzaga will do just enough of that to keep this one close.
Duke-Houston OVER 134.5
Friday, 9:39 p.m, CBS
Two very different stories for these squads coming out of the second round: Duke beat the brakes off of 12-seed James Madison, while Houston survived a near-collapse to beat Texas A&M in overtime.
I do think the Cougars, one of the best defenses in the country, will regroup from that game but man, was it dicey: Houston led by 11 points with less than two minutes to go, but the Aggies managed to crawl back in, tying the game at the buzzer with a three-pointer before falling in OT.
The foul trouble was near-fatal for Houston, and now they’re taking on Duke, a team long associated with a friendly whistle (warranted or otherwise, who’s to say).
The Blue Devils are loaded with talent, and they shot the lights out against JMU with 14 three-pointers. Houston’s a big step up in terms of defensive success, but the Duke shooters like Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor will stretch them out.
I think this game could go any number of ways, but I do think we’re in for a high-scoring game in spite of the relatively low projected total.