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It was an inauspicious end to the college basketball season for me, whiffing on my final two hoops picks of the year. One of those picks, the Iowa women -2.5 against Connecticut, missed by half a point — truly a horrific way to go out.
What makes that particular play worse in my head was that I initially had planned on laying off the spread in that Final Four game and instead playing the Iowa-UConn under, with the total set at 163 at tip-off.
The under came in with a ton of room to spare, but instead I lose out on a purposely missed Caitlin Clark free throw. Those are the breaks, I suppose.
I’m on to baseball season now, with my one winner from last week’s column coming on the diamond (thank you, Rangers).
Like any sport, betting baseball at the very beginning of the year is something of a crapshoot — some bad teams start hot, some good teams can’t find their footing.
But it’s also the best time to find good value on lines, while the sharps in Vegas are still trying to figure these teams out themselves.
Friday is always a good day on the baseball calendar, with most of the league coming off a Thursday rest day and starting a brand-new series to take them into the weekend.
Let’s find some winners to start the weekend right.
Diamondbacks -118
vs. Cardinals
Friday, 9:40 p.m.
I’m still very high on the Diamondbacks after their run to the World Series last year, and I think this is fairly good value on the Snakes against St. Louis.
Arizona opened the year taking three out of four from the Rockies, but then had a brutal stretch with the Yankees and Braves before getting another crack at Colorado. The DBacks are 6-7, but I think they’re going to hit a groove.
Brandon Pfaadt is scheduled to start for Arizona after getting knocked around by the Braves his last time out. Here at home against the Cards provides a good bounce-back spot, in my opinion.
St. Louis’s offense hasn’t been great, and I don’t have much faith in Steven Matz to be able to navigate the Arizona lineup, particularly that loaded top of the order.
Rangers vs. Astros
OVER 9 runs
Friday, 8:10 p.m.
Just a week after these two rivals tangled in Arlington, the Astros will welcome Texas to Minute Maid Park for a weekend series.
The Astros are off to a tough start, they’ve gotten next to nothing from their pitching staff. Framber Valdez is now on the injured list, and the rest of the rotation (save for Cristian Javier) have been ineffective, pitching the Astros right out of some very winnable ballgames.
JP France was OK against the Rangers a week ago, surrendering three earned runs over 5.2 innings. I think with a second crack at him, the Rangers lineup will be able to tee off a bit.
The flip side of that, though: I think Houston’s offense will be boosted by playing within the cozy confines of their home ballpark.
Minute Maid’s left field porch is notoriously hitter-friendly, and I think both teams will be swinging hot bats. The Rangers will send Dane Dunning out to start, and he’s had some trouble with command so far: seven walks in 13 innings pitched.
I’m tempted to take the Rangers moneyline once again (as of Thursday afternoon, they’re sitting at +118 on FanDuel), but I’m definitely riding the over.