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I’ve lamented the end of college basketball season once or twice in this column, and I’ve looked at the end of March as the end of basketball season altogether.
Of course, that’s not true. NBA fans might be inclined to say that the best stretch of ball is just starting to heat up.
We’re at the play-ins, almost to the playoffs, so I see no better time than to start crunching the numbers and finding some NBA winners with the Association taking the main stage in the sports world over the next couple weeks.
Like I’ve said before, I’m an NBA casual. I watch on Christmas Day, I’ll watch the All-Star festivities and I’ll watch the playoffs. In the interest of total honesty, I wanted to get that disclaimer out there.
HOWEVER: If you were following this column this time last year, when it ran in on our free Monday E-Edition, you’d have been sitting pretty. I went back and double-checked, and I gave out seven plays during the 2023 NBA Playoffs — all seven cashed.
I’ve only got one today, plus another baseball pick for you.
Enjoy the playoffs, and happy hunting for you bettors out there.
Last Week: 1-1
YTD: 19-15
Miami Heat -1.5 vs. Chicago Bulls
Friday, 7:10 p.m., ESPN
There are two games on Friday night, both of the play-in variety. But only one of those teams features a team that went 15-8 against the spread in the playoffs last season, and is off to a 1-0 start ATS this year (for the purposes of strengthening my logic, I’m counting these play-in games as playoff games).
I have just one system when it comes to betting the NBA: take the Heat every single time.
I mentioned my success giving out picks in last year’s playoffs, of those seven winners I think the majority were just picking Miami. This system dates back to the 2020 bubble playoffs, where I had a Heat championship future and bet them every single game on their way to the Finals.
From 2020-23, the Heat are 42-24 against the spread in the playoffs. They just know how to cover when the lights are on bright.
Yes, of course, Jimmy Butler missing this game is not ideal. But I do believe in Erik Spoelstra’s ability to prepare his guys, and the Heat have a group of role players that seem to thrive come playoff time.
I think Tyler Herro, after scoring a team-high 25 points against the Sixers on Wednesday, will have a big game. I’d keep an eye on Jaime Jaquez, too.
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+114)
vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, 8:40 p.m.
There are a few teams in the bigs this year, as there are every year, that are probably worth fading on the run line every single night. The Rockies are one of them.
Colorado is 4-15 to start the year, and 11 of those 15 losses have come by more than one run. It’s the pitching that’s killing them, they’ve given up the most runs in the MLB so far this year (117 in 19 games) and have the second-worst run differential in the league, behind only the White Sox.
The Mariners aren’t off to the best of starts either, but they’re coming off a sweep of the Reds and seem to be figuring things out.
Emerson Hancock is scheduled to pitch for the Mariners. He’s coming off a quality start against the Cubs after two rough starts to open the year. He’s a good young prospect, and I’m optimistic he’ll continue to work the bugs out.
I also like the M’s offense to take advantage of the hitter-friendly confines at Coors Field to wake up their offense a bit. Dakota Hudson is going to pitch for Colorado, a career so-so pitcher who doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses — not what you want at Coors.
I expect the Mariners to keep rolling here.