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I hope everyone is enjoying their Fourth of July extended weekend, and of course I hope everyone takes a minute to recognize the significance of the holiday while we’re all hanging out and enjoying a few hot dogs and some beverages.
We missed the Nathan’s Hot Dog eating contest by a day, but I could hardly tell you a thing about how it played out. I believe the winner’s odds were +1000, but without Joey Chestnut, the aura of the event just isn’t there.
But there’s still plenty happening around the wide world of sports: the first half of the MLB season is just about wrapped up, the Euro and Copa America tournaments are into the knockout stages, and Wimbledon is underway.
I’m still staying away from soccer after whiffing on my footy pick two weeks ago, but I do love me some tennis, so I’ve got one from Wimbledon, and one from the baseball diamond for you today.
Harriet Dart ML +135 vs. Xinyu Wang
Wimbledon, 3rd Round
Saturday, Time TBD
Hailing from right there in London, Dart’s going to have the hometown crowd firmly behind her in her third-round matchup with China’s Xinyu Wang.
Dart beat fellow Brit Katie Boulter in the second round, upsetting the higher-seeded Boulter in three sets. Wang scored an even bigger upset in her second-round match, bouncing No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula from the tournament, the highest-seeded player in either the men’s or women’s draws to be beaten so far (not counting Aryna Sabalenka, who withdrew with injury right as the tournament was set to start).
Both Dart and Wang are very solid in their return games, both winning a ton of break points in their second-round victories. This, if logic holds, would lead to longer volleys and longer points, which I believe favors Dart.
Wang’s played one more set through two rounds than Dart has, and I think Dart will be a bit fresher if this match gets into third-set territory.
I do expect the partisan crowd to give Dart a boost, as well. She’s got more years of experience under her belt, and I think she’ll know how to get the job done.
NOTE: my least favorite part about major tennis tournaments is that no one on Earth seems to know what time the matches are going to start. Since there’s only so many courts, these early-round matches get backed up like crazy.
Get this line as quick as you could get it, and then make sure to keep your eyes and ears peeled. DraftKings has this listed as a Saturday, 4 a.m. start, for what it’s worth.
Tigers-Reds UNDER 9 Runs (-105)
Friday, 7:10 p.m.
I’ve become a big believer in Reese Olson this season, and he’ll be one half of the expected pitching matchup here as Olson’s Tigers take on the Cincinnati Reds.
Neither of these offenses are anything special, the Reds are 15th in the league in runs scored, the Tigers 21st. Cincinnati is comng off a three-game sweep of the Yankees in New York, so they’ll be riding some serious momentum here.
But Olson, while not quite as sharp as his Cy Young candidate teammate Tarik Skubal, has been very effective for Detroit this year. He’s got a 3.32 ERA, and comes into Friday’s game with three straight quality starts, only allowing four earned runs in those three starts combined.
Both these teams strike out a ton, and the Tigers offense hasn’t been giving anybody trouble lately, which is good news for the Reds.
Cincinnati’s expected starter is rookie Carson Spiers, and while his sample size as a starter is much smaller (three starts total, to be exact), he’s coming off six innings of one-run ball in his last sart, against the Cardinals.
I’m hesitant to take the Tigers straight up as slight underdogs (right around -105) just because the Reds are hot, and the game is in Cincy, but I don’t see a slugfest breaking out here. I like the under.