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We really put together a nice board last week, didn’t we? Two college picks, two NFL picks, four winners and not a loser to be found.
No doubt, there was some sweating involved: Marshall lost by 17 as a 20.5-point underdog, the Seahawks almost let the Broncos sneak in the back door and the Lions needed a coin toss win and a perfect drive in overtime to hit the 4.5 number against the Rams on Sunday Night Football.
If winners came easy, then they wouldn’t call it “gambling,” friends.
The column is 6-2 now since football season began, we’re on the right track. It’s not a great board this weekend in terms of marquee football games (at least in the college ranks), but there’s value to be had.
Let’s find it.
Memphis +6.5 at Florida State
Saturday, 12 p.m., ESPN
My very first pick of the college football season was Florida State to cover in Ireland against Georgia Tech. Do we all remember that one?
The Seminoles couldn’t get any offense going, and lost that one. Then, back at home in Tallahassee, Florida State got beat pretty soundly by Boston College.
They got a bye week to refresh and maybe figure some things out, but I don’t know how much room for improvement the’ve got: the pieces just aren’t very good.
It doesn’t get any easier with Memphis coming to town. The Tigers are 2-0, they’ve allowed just 17 points in two games and they’re quarterbacked by one of the most experienced signal-callers in the country, Seth Henigan.
Henigan’s going to be making his 40th start for the Tigers this weekend, taking over the job as a freshman and never letting it go. He’s thrown for at least 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first three full seasons, and he’s off to a good start in year four.
This Memphis team is very good, and this will be a great test for the Tigers hitting the road to an environment that’s typically among the toughest for visiting teams in the country.
Typically. Is that same energy going to be there now with this abysmal start for the Seminoles? Will it matter?
I’m stopping short of taking the Tigers outright, but I don’t see Florida State scoring enough to get this outside of a touchdown.
Akron -14.5 vs. Colgate
Saturday, 6 p.m., ESPN+
As of Thursday afternoon, you’ll have to get this one on FanDuel but I’m sure it will open up on the rest of the big books.
I’ve split the road on FBS vs. FCS picks this year; North Dakota State beat the spread at Colorado, but Oklahoma State handled business against South Dakota State.
Akron’s not really any good, but Colgate is certainly not on that FCS upper echelon, and so I’ll take a relatively short spread and back the Zips.
It was a tough opening stretch for Akron, with road trips to a pair of Big Ten schools in Ohio State and Rutgers. The Zips were, predictably, beaten pretty bad by both teams.
But now they get to go home, and the level of competition goes from Big Ten to Patriot League? This should feel like taking the donut off the bat and having it feel ten pounds lighter.
Colgate is also 0-2 to start the year — but the losses were to Maine and a 28-3 whipping at the hands of Villanova. We’re not talking Nova basketball here, either.
You just have to hold your nose and take the plunge on this one, but I think the Zips are going to be looking forward to this one.
NFL
Cowboys -6 vs. Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m.
A couple of 1-0 teams here that played some underwhelming opponents, but I think the Cowboys are more complete as a team and will roll here over New Orleans.
Dallas picked up a victory in their opener on the road against the Browns. The story coming out of that game was how bad Deshaun Watson looked, but give the Cowboys credit: not only did their defense come to play, but Dak Prescott and the offense looked fine against the NFL’s best defense from a season ago, a playoff team to boot.
The Saints opened at home against the Panthers, and boy are the Panthers bad. Bryce Young still looks like he’s not going to be the guy, and there’s not much around him on either side of the ball to give Carolina fans much hope.
They scored 47 points but even still, I’m skeptical on the New Orleans offense, and now they’re facing a much, much better defensive unit. That kind of success doesn’t feel replicable against Dallas.
I think the Cowboys will force a couple more takeaways, and it’ll be up to Dak, CeeDee Lamb and the rest of the gang to make a dent in another really good defense.
If Dallas finds themselves leading as the game gets late, I don’t think Derek Carr has the stuff to hang around.
Jaguars -3 vs. Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Let’s circle back to those Cleveland Browns. It’s about as bad a start to the year as you could get for the Browns, who not only get handled at home in their opener but now see Watson back in the news for all the wrong reasons, yet again.
The off-the-field issues are far too serious to be used as rationale in a sports betting column, but just looking at Watson on the field: the Browns’ front office took a big swing and it’s looking like they missed the ball by 50 feet.
Jacksonville had a bad loss in its opener as well, getting shut out in the second half and blowing a 10-point lead to lose to the Dolphins.
The Jags’ offense, despite seemingly having all the pieces, didn’t look all that great. But there’s some young guys that stepped up: second-year running back Tank Bigsby had as many carries and more yards than starter Travis Etienne, and rookie wideout Brian Thomas led the team in receptions and caught a touchdown pass.
But now you have a Browns team coming to town that’s reeling, that didn’t look as stout defensively in Week 1 as people thought they would and can’t muster anything offensively?
Sounds like a good get-right spot for the Jags, who I still believe could be right in the mix with the AFC’s top teams.
Public money is heavy on the Browns here. Fade the public.