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The column came back down to Earth this past week. We hit our first pick of the week, Memphis covering against Florida State, and it looked like we might never lose again.
Then Akron let me down. Then the Cowboys laid the world’s largest egg. Then Trevor Lawrence and the Jags just didn’t have it in Cleveland.
Life comes at you fast, so I’m told. After back-to-back weeks without a loser in the column, a 1-3 week drops me to 7-5 in this space since the start of football season.
Which, all things considered, is not a bad spot to be. But the key is not to compound mistakes and let one losing weekend turn into two, and so on.
So let’s stop the skid here.
Army -6.5 vs. Rice
Saturday, 12 p.m., CBSSN
Two of the American Athletic Conference’s newest squads duke it out here, and I like Army on fairly short odds.
The Black Knights are 2-0, freshly rested off a bye week and have looked sharp through the early part of the season.
The defense has looked great, allowing just seven points in each of the first two games. One of those opponents was FCS Lehigh, sure, but then Army thumped Florida Atlantic 24-7.
You know what you get with the Army offense and the triple option, but it’s been working so far, and I think Rice won’t have much going to stop it.
Rice is 1-2 with a win over FCS Texas Southern, and two 20-plus point losses to Sam Houston State and Houston. The Owls scored 69 points in their win, so their offensive numbers will look better on paper than they should, but they couldn’t do much offensively in the losses.
It’s a long trip from Texas to West Point, and the Owls are coming off a 33-7 loss to Houston, so fatigue might be a factor that could haunt them on those super long Army drives.
EJ Warner transferred in from Temple to play quarterback, and he’s thrown four interceptions to just three touchdowns through his first three starts. The picks were a problem in his days at Temple and will bite him here against Army.
Oklahoma State -2.5 vs. Utah
Saturday, 4 p.m., FOX
One of a handful of ranked games on the Saturday slate, and there’s already been some funny business with this line that’s led me to back the Cowboys.
Utah, ranked 12th in the nation and sitting at 3-0, opened the week as a two-point favorite but now find themselves as underdogs.
The main issue here would be the availability of Utah QB Cam Rising, who hurt his hand two weeks ago against Baylor and sat out last week’s win over Utah State.
All indications from Utah seem to say that Rising will be playing, but it’s worth monitoring his situation through Friday and early Saturday.
I think he’ll play, but I’d back Oklahoma State at home in this one anyway.
Utah’s defense, while still very good, let Utah State do a little bit more offensively than I would’ve expected. I think Ollie Gordon will have some room to maneuver and make some plays on the ground.
As long as Oklahoma State could keep from turning the ball over (which they’ve been good about so far), I think they’re the better team.
NFL
Saints -2.5 vs. Eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
I’m sure I wasn’t alone watching Monday Night Football and being a little shocked at the way the Eagles looked.
All of the talk goes to the Saquon Barkley drop and the play call in that instance, but the Philly defense can’t generate a pass rush and is struggling to stop the run.
It’s a bad time to catch a team that’s firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball, but that’s what is in store for the Eagles this week, heading to New Orleans.
I whiffed hard picking against the Saints last week, and now I see the vision. The defense is nasty, which I knew and expected, but I did not expect the offense to look so sharp.
Alvin Kamara is locked in, and Derek Carr’s playing his best football since joining the Saints. He leads the league in QBR at 96.2, he’s tops in passer rating and tied for most touchdowns thrown with Baker Mayfield.
If the Eagles can’t pressure Carr, and if they can’t prevent Kamara from running, then they’re in trouble.
Chiefs -3.5 at Falcons
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Now, we’ve got the other half of that crazy Monday Night Football finish here with the Falcons.
Atlanta, again, benefited from the Barkley drop that stopped the clock. And then Kirk Cousins, who hadn’t looked particularly good through his first seven quarters of the season, marches the Falcons downfield 70 yards in 65 seconds to win the game.
Crazy, and a good win to energize the club and the fans ahead of a big primetime home game, but it’s just bad policy to bet against the Chiefs.
I don’t always like betting ON the Chiefs — particularly early in the year because they don’t always have great starts — but I don’t think this line is big enough.
The Chiefs are 2-0 with wins over the Ravens and the Bengals (who are a combined 0-4, but I don’t think anyone would take issue with me saying that those are wins over two of the AFC’s top teams).
This is their first trip on the road this year, but I don’t think Patrick Mahomes cares if he’s playing in Kansas City, Atlanta or Wilkes-Barre. The Chiefs were 6-3-1 against the spread on the road last year, according to StatMuse.
The Falcons’ defense is definitely improved over years’ past, but I don’t think they’ve improved enough to slow down the Chiefs.
Isiah Pacheco is out for Kansas City, but the thing about the Chiefs is that their offense is so good and well-constructed that I don’t think it matters who suits up at running back. I don’t think Pacheco’s absence will be a huge hindrance.