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Talk about a bounce-back week for the column — a 4-0 sheet to get us back headed in the right direction. Navy, Arizona State, the Jaguars and the Cardinals all got it done, with the Cards not just covering the spread but winning outright as 7.5-point underdogs.
That’s been a heck of a trend in the NFL this year, sizable underdogs taking it right to the favorites: it wasn’t just the Cardinals this week, but also the New York Football Giants, taking down the Seahawks.
Per Action Network, underdogs of six or more points are 16-2-1 against the spread this year, and 11-8 straight up.
I’m not following this trend with my NFL picks this week because I’m paranoid about that trend finally ending right as I try to ride it, but it’s something to monitor: as of Thursday afternoon, there are four underdogs that fit the bill.
The Commanders against Baltimore, the Browns at the Eagles, the Texans headed to New England and the Carolina Panthers at home against the Falcons.
Could be some live dogs in there, but I’ve got some picks I like all the same. Let’s put together another winning card.
Ball State -6.5 at Kent State
Saturday, 12 p.m., ESPN+
On a college football Saturday that’s shaping up to be a fantastic viewing experience, I start my board with the ugliest, grossest game of the afternoon.
Ball State is 1-4, that one win coming over FCS Missouri State. Kent State had one of those FCS games too, but were upended by the mighty Red Flash of St. Francis University and currently sit at 0-5 on the year.
Both of these teams are among the worst at the FBS level, but I’m betting on there being different levels of bad here: Ball State can’t play a lick of defense, but their offense has shown signs of life. In two games against MAC opponents, the Cardinals have scored 34 and 42 points, losing by three to Central Michigan and Western Michigan, respectively.
In the MAC, Ball State’s defense is 11th of 12, in front of only — you guessed it — Kent State. But on offense, the Cardinals climb out of the cellar a bit, ranking seventh in scoring offense and eighth in yards per game.
Kent State sits at either 11th or 12th in every conceivable MAC team stat. They’re 0-5 against the spread even with an FCS game, and two games as a 49-point underdog.
They’re the worst team in the FBS, and I don’t think it’s even remotely close. Ball State has shown some ability to move the ball through the air, and I don’t think they’re going to encounter much resistance.
BYU -3.5 vs. Arizona
Saturday, 4 p.m., FOX
One of a few teams looking to take pole position in the first year of the Big 12’s post-Texas and Oklahoma era, I like BYU and I think this is a low number for them to be favored by.
The Cougars are 5-0, one of two overall unbeatens left in the conference along with Iowa State. BYU’s also 5-0 against the spread, and have won outright as underdogs three times.
They’ve done it without any real household names on roster, while Arizona has heralded wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan and quarterback Noah Fifita on offense.
But the Wildcats just look so inconsistent at times: they had no issues going to Utah and unseating the Utes (without Cam Rising, to be fair), but that win is sandwiched in between a 31-7 loss to Kansas State and a six-point home loss to Texas Tech as six-point favorites.
In fact, the win over Utah is the only time so far this year that the Wildcats have covered the spread — they’re 1-4 ATS to date.
I think that BYU’s defense is on the same level as Utah’s, but they’ll be able to enjoy more success offensively than Utah was able to.
The Cougars are going to take another step toward the CFP with a win here, and I think they’ll cover the number without much difficulty.
NFL
Bears -1.5 vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
It’s the London game, a spot that the Jaguars have gotten quite used to, but I’m backing the Bears this week to win their third in a row.
Last week, if you recall, I took the Jags as short home favorites against the Colts, and it hit. Jacksonville won its first game of the year in a classic “get right” spot.
But here’s the thing: the Colts were down to Joe Flacco at quarterback and Trey Sermon at running back, and still carved up the Jacksonville defense. The Jags repaid the favor, but Indy’s got the worst defense in the league.
The Bears defense has been fantastic this year, this is going to be a much tougher test for Trevor Lawrence and crew.
In particular, the Bears have picked off 22 passes this year, tied for most in the league. Lawrence has been better so far this year but turnover issues still persist for him, and this is a nightmare matchup for a QB who turns over the ball.
I think Chicago is beginning to figure things out on offense too, and that’s the bigger highlight for Bears fans. Caleb Williams is growing and improving with each passing week, and he and DJ Moore are finding their groove.
With the running game starting to find some legs, there’s going to be too much going on for the Jags defense to shut it down.
Broncos +3 vs. Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
I’m still not totally sold on Bo Nix, but the Broncos are looking super strong defensively and are going to present a ton of problems for the Chargers here.
The Chargers did have the bye week to rest up, which will be huge for Justin Herbert to try and heal up that high ankle sprain. They’ve lost to two good teams (the Chiefs and the Steelers), and beaten two bad ones (Panthers and Raiders).
The offense hasn’t looked good, regardless: outside of Herbert playing hurt, the run game hasn’t been productive and there’s still not really anyone for Herbert to throw to.
The Broncos’ offense haven’t looked much better, but Nix has begun to clean up those ugly turnovers from earlier in the year and has kept Denver in games, as opposed to taking them out of games like he did against the Steelers and the Seahawks in the season’s first two weeks.
This isn’t so much a “I believe in the Broncos” pick, so much as it’s a sign of where I’m at with the Chargers. Jim Harbaugh may have changed the culture in Los Angeles, but so far it hasn’t translated much to the field.