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In all the time I’ve been doing this column, I’ve seen bets go good, go bad, go just about every direction imaginable.
We hit a milestone this past week, though: we had a certified, Scott Van Pelt co-signed Bad Beat.
Ball State blew the -3.5 cover in a manner that I can’t put into words. You’ll have to click here to watch it.
No words. It was probably the worst beat I’ve ever had. Honestly, it may have been at least a top-three darkest moment in my life.
But hey, that’s gambling. Onwards and upwards, and even with the Ball State loss we managed to turn in a 2-2 week. BYU came through, the Bears came through in London but the Broncos let us down to make it an even week.
Here’s hoping the universe sends me some good cosmic energy to make up for Ball State. They might make the Do Not Bet list for this one, but let’s move forward.
Missouri -4.5 vs. Auburn
Saturday, noon, ESPN
At one point ranked as high as sixth in the nation, it’s not been the best couple weeks for Missouri. After escaping in wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt, the Tigers got their doors blown off by Texas A&M two weeks ago.
Now down to No. 19, I think the Tigers have got some of the limelight off them, but I believe they’re still a good football team. And perhaps more importantly, I think Auburn isn’t very good at all.
Auburn’s 2-4 with four losses in their last five games. In three of those losses, Auburn was favored: against Cal, against Arkansas and against Oklahoma. All home games, all losses.
There’s no doubt Auburn’s faced a tougher schedule than Mizzou (the fourth Auburn loss was last week at Georgia), but I’m not impressed with the offense or the coaching there.
I’d love to see Missouri wideout Luther Burden get going a bit; he’s had just one 100-yard game this year. He left last week’s win over UMass early with an injury, but all indications are that he’s good to go this week.
I think Mizzou has a significant edge at quarterback with Brady Cook against Auburn’s Payton Thorne, and I think the vibes at Auburn are just not right this year. Hugh Freeze has a lot to do with it, but Auburn just hasn’t looked like it’s getting up for big games.
In this all-Tiger matchup, take the ones in black and gold to cover.
Illinois +3.5 vs. Michigan
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Frankly, I think the wrong team is favored here but I’m stopping short of riding with the Illini on the moneyline here. They did just get taken to overtime by a pretty downtrodden Purdue team, but sometimes Purdue just does that to folks.
Other than that, though? The Illini are ranked 22nd in the country, they’re 5-1 with the one loss being to Penn State. They don’t have a truly signature win, but beating this year’s Nebraska team in Lincoln is a really nice victory to have.
We all know the story with the Wolverines by now: defense is legit, offense is very ordinary. They can’t throw the ball, so they rely heavily on running backs Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings.
Edwards hasn’t been very consistent this year, and while Mullings looked great in his first couple games as the lead back, he’s started to regress in production. After back-to-back 150-yard games in wins over Arkansas State and USC, Mullings went for 111 against Minnesota and just 49 yards in last week’s loss to Washington.
In terms of spreads and odds, I think the Wolverines are still coasting on last year’s national title success. The reality is, they’re just not that team.
Michigan is 1-5 against the spread this year, including 0-3 as a favorite. Illinois, by contrast, is 4-2 ATS and 3-0 as an underdog. Two of those three covers were outright victories.
NFL
Colts -3 vs. Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m.
I swear the number on the Colts game is the same every single week. Sometimes they’re favored, sometimes they’re not, but the Indy line is always right around 3, 3.5 points.
And the guys in Vegas are right to do it: all six Colts games have been one-possession games, and four of them have been within three points.
I was right betting against them two weeks ago, and I feel good about riding with them here against the Dolphins.
Miami beat the Patriots two weeks ago in a game that set this great sport back about 100 years. The Dolphins without Tua have no juice whatsoever; even with very good pieces in place all over the field, they just can’t do anything right at the moment.
The Colts are dealing with their injuries, too: Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor have both been out the last two weeks, and both are still questionable to make their return here.
But Joe Flacco continues to do enough to make the wheels turn, they’re lacking in the run game without Taylor but they make it work.
Colts have also covered the spread four weeks in a row and are 5-1 total against the spread this year. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS, only covering for the first time in that New England win.
Steelers ML +115 vs. Jets
Sunday, 8:20 p.m, NBC
The Jets have grabbed all the headlines this week, and for good reason: after an attempted game-winning drive on Monday night ended in an interception, New York went out and traded for Davante Adams, reuniting him with his former Packers teammate Aaron Rodgers.
Adams will likely (he’s missed some time with a hamstring injury but mysteriously was fine once the Raiders traded him) make his Jets debut in primetime against a very good Steelers defense.
The Jets are slight road favorites here, but I’m skeptical how fast plugging in Adams jolts this team into the playoff contender they thought they were before the season. Rodgers and Adams put up video game numbers together, but they haven’t been in the same offense since 2021.
Adams is still putting up 1,000-yard seasons but Rodgers has shown noticeable decline this year. He tore his Achilles last year and he’s going to be turning 41 this season.
Mike Tomlin is 58-31-3 in his Steelers career as an underdog. The Steelers are 4-2 overall, 4-2 against the spread and won the only game they were underdogs in so far this year.
I like those numbers.