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We were within one half-point of a 4-0 board this past week. I try not to hang on the losers when there were more winners to be celebrated, but a half-point’s brutal.
If you recall, my first pick in last week’s column was Missouri -4.5 at home against Auburn. The pick felt like a loser the whole way, so I don’t feel as though I was cheated, but Mizzou managed to score a late touchdown to win — by four points.
Funny thing about that though, and a good lesson for anyone who’s tailing me: at time of writing last Thursday, the line was -4.5. However, the line dropped down to 3.5 points right before kickoff, and if you got Missouri at that number, that’s a winner.
It’s a good practice to keep an eye on the lines right up until kickoff, even if you’ve already placed your bet. You never know how the numbers might move, and if I’m telling you that I like Missouri as 4.5-point favorites, it’s logical to assume that I like them even more as 3.5-point favorites.
No matter, we still went 3-1. Illinois came through for me, the Colts covered and the Steelers ran through the Jets to win easily as a home underdog. In Tomlin we trust.
Let’s keep it up this week.
Boise State -3.5 at UNLV
Friday, 10:30 p.m., CBSSN
We’re not even waiting for Saturday this week; I’m keying in on a Friday night fight between two of the Group of Five’s best.
These two programs have made waves in the sport this year, for very different reasons. For Boise State, it’s been the unbelievable run of Ashton Jeanty, the presumptive Heisman front-runner at this point.
For UNLV, it was the story of quarterback Matthew Sluka leaving the program for either wanting more NIL money or not getting the money he was initially promised (so much mud-slinging on both sides, I genuinely have no idea what was true there). In his absence, Hajj-Malik Williams has been sharp and has the Rebels in the hunt for a playoff spot.
But it’s Jeanty that sways me here. If you all out here haven’t gotten a chance to watch him run, try and set some time aside.
Both teams could move the ball and score a ton of points, but the Boise State offense is averaging 523 yards per game, tops in the Mountain West.
Defensively, Boise State is the better unit and, though I think UNLV will be able to run with them for a while, ultimately I like the Broncos to get ahead and stay ahead, and remain the pole-sitter for the G5 auto-bid into the playoff.
UL Monroe +7.5 at South Alabama
Saturday, 5 p.m., ESPN Plus
One of FBS’s most historically downtrodden programs, the UL Monroe Warhawks are putting a heck of a season together this year.
Since making the jump up from I-AA (now FCS) in 1994, Monroe’s had as many 0-10 seasons as they’ve had winning seasons (one of each).
But the Warhawks are 6-1 this year, their only loss is a very understandable defeat at Texas and they’re off to a 3-0 start in the Sun Belt.
The best player on both teams is the running back — ULM’s Ahmad Hardy and South Alabama’s Fluff Bothwell. I think we’ll see run-heavy gameplans on both sides of the ball,
In a game that seems likely to be low-scoring, I’ll gladly take Monroe at this number, giving me the half-point hook if they lose by a touchdown. South Alabama has more offensive firepower, but not enough to where I think they’ll overwhelm the Warhawks defense.
I think the Warhawks could very well win the game outright, they’ve won three times this year as underdogs, but I’d rather play it safe and take the points.
NFL
Packers -4 at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Jaguars have returned from their second home in London back to Jacksonville, but I don’t foresee a happy homecoming.
Jacksonville’s won two of the last three games after an 0-4 start, but consider the teams on the other end of those wins. The Colts were down to their backup running back, backup quarterback and their top wideout has been playing injured.
Then last week it was the Patriots, who are a dumpster fire. Not much more to add there.
The Packers aren’t anywhere close to that ballpark, and they’ve won three in a row including an impressive comeback win over the Texans last week.
I don’t see what the Jaguars are going to be able to defensively here. The Packers have such an underappreciated core of wide receivers, adding Christian Watson back into the fold last week. They also have Josh Jacobs to run the ground game.
Green Bay’s defense leads the league in caused turnovers, and although Trevor Lawrence has been better this year taking care of the ball, I expect he’ll give one or two away.
Steelers -6 vs. Giants
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
It was a bit of a slow start, but the Russell Wilson era is off to a good start in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers fell behind 15-6 but scored 31 unanswered points to rout the Jets in primetime last weekend, and they’re back in primetime to welcome New Jersey’s other team, the Football Giants.
I think there are some fair points to be made about the Jets not being as good as advertised and that being a factor in the win. Good news for Steelers fans, the Giants are demonstrably worse on both sides of the ball.
Having Malik Nabers back is a plus, but he didn’t move the needle much in last week’s blowout loss to the Eagles. He’s really the only good piece on the Giants offense. Wandale Robinson isn’t bad, but after that it’s like falling off a cliff.
It’ll be important for the Steelers’ offensive line to hold up, that’s the one thing the Giants are doing well this year is getting pressure.
But, even though his prime is behind him, Russ still has some playmaking left in him and he’s already developed a nice rapport with George Pickens.
I think the Steelers win big here.