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The column was as average as average could be last week. 2-2 overall, and I split my picks in both college and the NFL.
On one hand, I could now say that I’m undefeated this year in Friday night picks, and I’ll likely never be beaten on Fridays. Thank you to Boise State for that.
UL Monroe was a whiff, hand up. In the NFL, I had a pick that went south late (Packers -4, they won by three) and a pick that used all 60 minutes to cash (Steelers -6).
We’re heading back to the power conferences this week, one conference in particular. I think I’ve been a bit sharper with the bigger schools, which historically is the opposite of how I fare betting college sports.
Onward, we march.
Michigan +14.5 vs. Oregon
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS
I’ve been critical of the Wolverines before in this column, and I have profited on their downfall this season, from national champ to a possible losing season in just one year.
But this line just screams “Michigan” to me. At home, coming off a rivalry win and welcoming the top-ranked team in the nation to town — a team that beat your most hated rival to ascend to the top spot just a few weeks ago.
It looks like Davis Warren will be the guy under center for Michigan after leading his team to a win over Michigan State last week. That position has been a revolving door this year, and this isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement but Warren has been the best passer of the three guys the Wolverines have trotted out there this year.
Oregon’s the better team, but it’s a long road trip from the West Coast to Eugene, and we’ve seen plenty of examples of teams struggling to make that time zone jump.
Plus, even though it’s not the complete package of a year ago, I still think Michigan’s defense has the pieces in place to give Dillon Gabriel trouble. It’ll be huge if they’re able to generate pressure; Ohio State’s been the team to take Oregon the closest to the brink, but they didn’t sack Gabriel once.
Getting the half-point hook is what really locks me in here. I think Oregon will escape with a win here, but “escape” is the operative word.
Indiana -8 vs. Michigan State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., Peacock
Back one Michigan team, fade the other. But this isn’t so much about the Spartans, it’s just that Indiana demands my attention and my money.
The Hoosiers are 8-0, they’ve covered the spread in their last seven games, they’re looking very likely to get their starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke back this week and most of all, they are a WAGON.
In all eight of their games this year, they’ve won by double-digits — and they’ve done it against far better teams than 2024’s version of Michigan State.
The Spartans have fallen hard after a 3-0 start, now currently 4-4 with four losses in their last five games. You could point out the strength of schedule in those losses — Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan among them — but it’s also fair to point out that Sparty hasn’t looked very competitive as of late.
Also, those three wins to start the year? A one-score win over Florida Atlantic, a one-score win over Maryland and a big win over the vaunted Panthers of Prairie View A&M.
They won’t have any answers for Rourke, and if for some reason he can’t go, Justin Ellison has run for over 100 yards in two straight games.
Defensively, Indiana’s got the Big Ten sacks leader in Mikail Kamara, the second-leading tackler in the conference in Aiden Fisher and a team total of nine interceptions. Coincidentally, that’s the same amount Aidan Chiles has thrown this year for Michigan State.
The numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for Michigan State on Saturday.
NFL
Bengals -7 vs. Raiders
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Bengals are definitely a little tricky to figure out this year. They typically start slow and heat up over time, so it wasn’t shocking to see them start to turn the corner after an 0-3 start.
Then the Eagles tripped them up last week, and now Cincy’s at 3-5. I think this is a great get-right spot for them against one of the league’s worst teams.
Yes, the Raiders did keep things close with the Chiefs last week, and the Rams the week before that. The schedule in general has been unkind to Las Vegas — Chiefs, Rams, Steelers and the Broncos in Denver over the last four weeks, all losses.
It doesn’t let up here, now the Raiders are heading to Cincinnati to face a team that needs to win, and likely wants to make a statement.
This should be a softer matchup for the Bengals’ running game in particular. The Eagles are top-10 in rush yards allowed per game, while the Raiders sit at 19th.
I think Cincy will be able to open up the run game, which in turn will free up Burrow and his pass-catchers. On the other side of the ball, as long as the Bengals bottle up Brock Bowers they should be fine. The rookie tight end has been the highlight in what’s otherwise been a dismal season for the Las Vegas offense.
Colts +5.5 vs. Vikings
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
This is the game that got flexed into primetime in place of the Eagles-Browns matchup, which means there will be no distractions for sports fans tuning in to see Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold duke it out.
Flacco was named the starter going forward in place of Anthony Richardson, and with the couple games we saw of Flacco earlier this year when Richardson got hurt, it’s pretty clear he gives the Colts their best chance to win at the present moment.
I think I mentioned this the last time I bet on or against the Colts, but they play every game within one score. We’re through eight weeks of football, and the Colts have played in eight games decided by a touchdown or less.
To take it even further, five of those games were decided by a field goal or less. Whether they win or lose, the Colts know how to take you right down to the wire.
Minnesota’s lost two in a row coming out of their bye week, both tough games against the Rams and the Lions. But in both those games, the Vikings’ defense allowed the opposing quarterback to play their best game of the year.
They were outgained by the Rams by over 100 yards, and the offensive line is starting to let opposing pass-rushers get to Sam Darnold.
If this is the game the Colts suddenly reverse trends and get blown out, I’d be shocked.