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Another 2-2 week, this one feels a bit more frustrating than last week because in both of my losers, it was a late touchdown that swung me out of cover territory. I failed to properly lock the back door and let two covers slip out.
With Michigan +14.5, Oregon scored a touchdown with 28 seconds left to cover the spread. On Sunday night with the Colts, it was a Vikings touchdown with two minutes to play that sunk me.
Indiana Hoosiers were a winner, as were the Bengals. Maybe something to watch: both of the favorites I picked covered; the losers were both on underdogs.
I’ve got two more underdogs in my selections this week, along with a rare foray into over/under territory with an NFC East rivalry game on tap.
Army -4.5 at North Texas
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
The Black Knights, ranked 25th in the year’s first set of College Football Playoff rankings, are the final team in FBS not to trail for a single second this season.
Here, they’re pretty small favorites on the road against a North Texas team that could score points in bunches.
Quarterback Bryson Daily’s status is still up in the air for Army after missing the win over Air Force last week. Obviously I’d feel a lot better if he was out there but, with North Texas’s defense giving up about 37 points per game this year, I think the Black Knights will be able to move the ball regardless of who’s taking the snaps.
Daily’s status is certainly a factor in the short spread. North Texas’s offense, best in the AAC this year, is another factor. But they haven’t seen a defense like Army’s, not only the clear and away best in that conference but one of the four of five best defenses in the nation.
It won’t come so easy for the Mean Green on Saturday. Army’s got a bye next week and a huge showdown with Notre Dame after that, but I don’t think this team is the type to get caught looking ahead.
Army stays the course and wins by 10-14 points here to remain unbeaten.
Vanderbilt +4.5 vs South Carolina
Saturday, 4:15 p.m., SEC Network
Here’s one of those underdogs I was talking about. How am I supposed to not back Diego Pavia and the Commodores, though, with the season they’ve put together?
Vandy’s got wins over Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Virginia Tech on their resume this season — all four wins as outright underdogs. At 6-3, all three of those losses have been within four points or fewer.
I don’t want to underestimate South Carolina, the Gamecocks have had a strong season of their own. Both teams are great against the spread — 6-2 for South Carolina, 7-2 for Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks are 3-0 against the spread in road games, but Vandy is 6-0 ATS as an underdog.
I think any way you shake it out, this game’s going to be close. But Pavia’s got a playmaking ability, and he pulls his teammates up with him in ways that I don’t see happening on the other sideline in this one.
NFL
Steelers +3 vs. Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is the third time in four weeks that I’ve looked at the NFL board, tried to find two winners and simply said, “I think it’s gotta be the Steelers.”
It’s worked thus far: they beat the Jets three weeks ago as underdogs, then covered the six-point spread against the Giants.
Coming off a bye, Pittsburgh’s an underdog on the road at Washington. Both teams are riding three-game winning streaks and playing good ball.
In the week of the Jets game, I cited this stat: Mike Tomlin was 58-31-3 against the spread as an underdog in his Steelers coaching career heading into that game.
Well, now he’s 59-31-3. And I’m willing to bet that he’s going to make it an even 60 on Sunday.
Eagles-Cowboys OVER 43
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
I don’t do a lot of totals during football season, it’s never been something I’ve felt all that sharp on. But when I saw the number drop down to 43 after seeing it earlier in the week as high as 46.5, I hopped on.
A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert are both questionable for the Eagles, and the Cowboys haven’t been very good at all, so I see why the total’s low.
But here’s my thing: DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley could pick up any slack if Brown can’t go, and I don’t think the Cowboys defense is going to do a thing to stop them.
The Cowboys have been the talk of the ESPN panel show circuit because of how bad they’ve been, and it’s no joke: Dallas is 3-5, three losses in a row to Detroit, the Niners and the Falcons last week.
They appear to be a sinking ship. But if you can’t get up for the Eagles, at home, in what’s essentially a do-or-die game? If the Cowboys can’t get up and at least compete here, then the season is lost and the current core of this franchise might be toast.
I think they’ll get up. I think they’ll compete, and I think they’ll score some points. I think the Eagles will get to 30, so as long as the Cowboys could keep up even just a little bit, the over should come through.