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When Cowboys owner Jerry Jones came out earlier this week to dispel the idea that he needed to put up curtains to block the sun from pouring through the windows at AT&T Stadium, he clearly wasn’t thinking about the gamblers.
Take me, for example. As you may recall if you’re a faithful reader, i got the Cowboys-Eagles total at 43.5 points and took the over.
The game ended up 34-6, a total of 40, a loser for me. At one point during the game, what looked like a sure touchdown catch for Ceedee Lamb turned into an incompletion because he lost the ball in the sun.
The Cowboys settled for a field goal — coming away with three points, instead of seven. Do the math: if Lamb sees that ball, I hit my over.
I’ve lost a lot of bets, some worse than others, but I don’t think I’ve lost one because a team playing INSIDE got lost in the sunlight.
To Jerry Jones, I say: find me on Venmo, and make this right.
We still went 2-2 this week: Army covered, Vanderbilt was a bust but the Steelers came through for me on Sunday.
It’s been a few middling weeks strung together recently, let’s change that.
Illinois -3 vs. Michigan St.
Saturday, 2:30 p.m., FS1
At time of writing, I’ve actually seen the line drop down to 2.5 points in some places, obviously I would recommend getting that number as well.
Illinois has hit something of a rough patch with consecutive losses to Oregon and Minnesota heading into Saturday, but I still like this team and think they’re a class above their competition this weekend.
Michigan State has stumbled their way onto my television from time to time, and I don’t ever feel impressed. The Spartans lost a pretty tough game against Michigan, but followed up last week with a beatdown at the hands of Indiana.
Even worse: Michigan State was actually leading 10-0 in that game, and gave up 47 unanswered to the Hoosiers.
I think the Illini are the better team on both sides of the ball, and they’re playing at home. I could forgive the two-game skid that’s brought them here: Oregon is the number one team in the country, and Minnesota has been quietly playing some solid football late in the year.
It’s a good bounce-back spot for the Illini, still having one of their best seasons in recent memory.
BYU -2.5 vs. Kansas
Saturday, 10:15 p.m., ESPN
A very consequential Big 12 game played in the late window on Saturday night, and I think I’m going to be in the minority here riding with BYU.
The Cougars are in pole position in the Big 12 right now, a game up on Colorado and two games clear on a host of other teams. They were ranked sixth in the latest CFP projections, and it seems like (for now) BYU could control their own destiny as it pertains to locking up a top-four spot in the playoff field.
Are there questions about this team? Sure. The Big 12 isn’t all that great this year, the Cougars have snuck by a few teams (including Utah last weekend).
Combine those thoughts with Kansas, predicted to be a league contender earlier in the year, it’s been a disappointing season, but the Jayhawks knocked off Iowa State last week and could make BYU’s path to the playoff a lot more complicated.
I don’t see it though. BYU may not be as good as some of the other playoff teams, but they’ve handled their business.
As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead to Arizona State next week, I think the Cougars are the better team and will remain unbeaten.
NFL
Dolphins -7 vs. Raiders
Sunday, 1 p.m.
I don’t know if the Dolphins are going to be able to play themselves back into the playoff picture, but after the last two weeks, I think they might not be quite dead yet.
Tua and company looked far from perfect on Monday night, but the Dolphins went out to the West Coast and picked up a good road win over the Rams. Tyreek Hill didn’t have huge numbers but found the end zone, and Jaylen Waddle looked sharp taking on more of the workload.
A really good way to stack another win and build some momentum? Play the Raiders.
Las Vegas is coming off a bye, with five straight losses leading into the off week. It feels like an eternity since they went into Baltimore and beat the Ravens.
In their final game before the bye, the Raiders gave up 41 points to Joe Burrow and the Bengals, a team with potent offensive weapons that absolutely needed to make a statement.
This week? A team in Miami with potent offensive weapons (all healthy for the first time in awhile) that absolutely needs a statement.
I don’t think this one’s going to be close.
Bengals ML +105 at Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Speaking of Joe Burrow and those Bengals: biggest win of the year incoming for Cincinnati here.
I’m not sold on the Chargers, who are 6-3 riding a three-game winning streak heading into Sunday Night Football.
Those three wins came over the Saints, the Browns and the Titans last week. Hardly a gauntlet to navigate, though the Chargers also covered in each of those three wins.
Jim Harbaugh’s defense has been very stout, but I think this is the best offense they’ve seen thus far. It will only get better for the Bengals if Tee Higgins is able to play: the wideout’s missed the last three games but suited up in Wednesday’s practice and has a chance to play on Sunday night.
When I think of the Chargers historically in spots like this, I feel like they’re more likely to underachieve than live up to the billing. Maybe Harbaugh’s going to change that narrative; here’s a good spot to prove it.
But I don’t trust their offense to take advantage of Cincy’s soft defense, they still don’t have enough pieces around Justin Herbert.
If the Bengals lose here, it might be curtains for them this year (and with Higgins likely to leave in the offseason, who knows what the future holds). I don’t think they’re going to bow out so easily.