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First things first: I hope everyone reading this had themselves a wonderful Thanksgiving, full of food and good cheer and all of that.
When I was asked at dinner what I was thankful for, my response was that I was very thankful for the four winners I gave out last week: Arizona State, Nebraska, the Packers and the Eagles.
It didn’t exactly get a standing ovation at the dinner table. But I guess different people celebrate the holiday in different ways.
Anyway, a great week for ball of all kinds leads us into a fun football weekend. I finally got free of my 2-2 streak last week, let’s see if we can’t find some more winners.
Clemson -3 vs. South Carolina
Saturday, noon, ESPN
Kind of quietly, this rivalry game has turned into a possible play-in game for the College Football Playoff. I don’t think South Carolina belongs in that mix, but the Playoff committee has them at 15th, not too far outside the field.
It’s a slim, unlikely chance for the Gamecocks but I don’t think it will matter; I think they’ll play their way out of the picture here.
For one, Clemson’s still got an outside chance at making the field the easy way: if they win here and Miami loses on the road to Syracuse, the Tigers will reach the ACC title game and will be able to control their own destiny.
This rivalry’s been pretty one-sided the last decade or so, as Clemson has ascended to the top of the college football world.
They’re a far cry from the school’s national title teams but I think the Tigers have plenty of juice with Cade Klubnik at the reins. Before beating up on The Citadel last week, Clemson picked up two big road wins over Virginia Tech and Pitt to keep their season alive.
The Gamecocks are winning, but they got a great draw in the SEC avoiding Georgia and Tennessee. This is as tough a test as they’ve seen in weeks, and I don’t think Clemson will give them any room to work.
Illinois -7.5 at Northwestern
Saturday, noon, Big Ten Network
One week after the most improbable win I’ve seen this year, I like the Illini to handle things a lot more comfortably at Wrigley Field against a bad Northwestern team.
Maybe more importantly here than just Northwestern being bad, is that they’re coming off games with Ohio State and Michigan the last two weeks. Last week in Ann Arbor, it was a disaster top to bottom for the Wildcats in a 50-6 beatdown.
The Illini have to feel like they’re playing with house money, so to speak, after their win at Rutgers a week ago. They had absolutely no business pulling that game out, and yet they’re looking at a chance to win nine games for the first time since 2007.
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer doesn’t have the most eye-popping numbers, but he’s been very good at limiting turnovers, which Northwestern will need to create to stay in this game.
The Illini are a better defense by a bit, and a better offense by a lot.
NFL
Commanders -5.5 vs. Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m.
It’s not been a good couple weeks for the Commanders, but I like this spot here for a team that’s still in playoff contention and could really use a get-right game.
While Washington was very nearly winning, but ultimately losing to Dallas next week, the Titans got up and knocked off the division-leading Texans. It was an impressive win for Tennessee but more of an indictment on the Texans, in my opinion.
Looking at the stats, the Titans are an interesting bunch. They allow the second-fewest yards per game to opposing offenses, but plummet to 27th in scoring defense.
It’s because the defense gets stuck with short fields because the offense turns the ball over a lot — that’s the key for the Commanders.
I think Jayden Daniels will have to use his legs a good deal here, particularly if Brian Robinson can’t go, but he’s excellent when he gets space to run. If Robinson is able to go, he gives the Commanders another playmaker and limits how much the Titans will be able to cue in on Daniels.
Patriots +2.5 vs. Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m.
We are a long way away from the Brady vs. Manning days of this rivalry game. This is an ugly matchup, I’m taking the points with New England at home.
I’ve talked about the Colts in here before, namely their ability to play every game close. That trend has begun to slip a bit, with a 10-point loss to the Bills and a 24-6 loss to the Lions last week.
They’ve also lost four of their last five and generally look bad, both sides of the ball. Anthony Richardson makes one or two unreal throws a game, and then throws the rest of them five yards over the head of his receivers.
For a long time the Colts had one of the best offensive lines in the league, but the cracks are showing and it’s also limiting what Jonathan Taylor could do.
Like many out there, I’ve been impressed by what Drake Maye’s been able to do with basically no help: a bad offensive line, a bad run game and bad receivers and yet, Maye makes some plays happen out of sheer will.
This is one of the worst defenses he’ll see all year, and I think he’ll be able to really show people what he could do.