I’m going to keep this part of the column brief. It’s swelteringly hot in our newsroom and I feel like I’ve run out of things to say in this little preamble part of the whole thing.
Win some, lose some, I’m losing more than I win — that’s the best way to sum it up. Follow or fade, I don’t mind either way.
Instead of a straight pick, I’m on a player prop from the NBA playoffs to go along with two baseball games.
Luke Kennard 15+ points -107 (Lakers vs. Rockets)
Friday, 8:00 p.m., Prime Video
When I saw that the play-in tournament games were exclusive to Prime Video, I thought surely that would be the end of it. They wouldn’t continue to do that into the actual playoffs, right?
Looks like they are, in fact, sending the Lakers-Rockets Game 3 to Prime as the Rockets look to dig out of a 2-0 hole back home in Houston.
The Lakers are out to a 2-0 lead in spite of injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, and a huge part of that has been the play of Luke Kennard as he’s been inserted into the starting lineup.
Kennard had 27 points in Game 1 and 23 points in Game 2, cashing this prop both times. The value on this bet has decreased from game to game (it was +116 on DraftKings before Game 2, and it’s probably going to keep moving into minus territory before Game 3 tips, so this will likely be the last time you’ll get decent value on it).
He’s a sharp shooter, and with how good LeBron’s been in this series as both a scorer and distributor, the looks will continue to be there for him.
I’d even consider bumping up on DK to 18+ points, which will get you much better value (and is also 2-for-2 in this series).
Reds-Tigers OVER 8.5 runs
Friday, 6:40 p.m.
It’s the very first game to go off on a full Friday MLB slate, and I think we’re going to get some runs to start the weekend off.
Neither of these lineups are among the most potent in the league, but the Reds have begun to swing the bats pretty well: before a 6-1 loss on Wednesday, Cincinnati had scored at least five runs in four straight ballgames. They’ve also run to the top of the NL Central for now in what’s shaping up to be a very fun division race.
It’s a hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincinnati, and it’s Framber Valdez throwing for the Tigers against Andrew Abbott for the Reds.
Abbott had a breakout year last season but he’s really struggling so far in 2026 with a 5.84 ERA and just 15 strikeouts compared to 13 walks. His last start at home? Three innings, seven earned runs.
Valdez is the better arm here, he’s been sharp so far this year but even he won’t be immune to the ballpark and to giving up some hits.
Detroit shouldn’t have an issue getting to Abbott. I’ll need the Reds to do their fair share at the plate, but I feel like that’s very doable.
Cardinals +130 vs. Mariners
Friday, 8:15 p.m.
Perhaps the easiest way to start stacking some victories on the diamond is to seek out more home underdogs. You don’t always get a ton of them because of baseball’s random nature, where everyone will beat everyone at some point.
The Cardinals are underdogs at home with Seattle coming to town on Friday night, and I think it’s a good place to start betting some home dogs.
It really isn’t even the Cardinals or anything they’ve been doing so far this season that makes me think they’re a prime target: it’s their opponent, the Mariners.
Seattle went to the ALCS last year and has all the tools to do it again, but they’ve had a major problem winning on the road this season.
The Mariners are 1-8 away from Seattle, 10-7 at home inside T-Mobile Park. It’s the worst road record of any team in the majors through the first month of the season.
It’s still early obviously, that record won’t be quite so lopsided once we get into the later months. But the Mariners themselves are also having a sluggish start to the year in general, currently stuck in fourth place in the AL West at 11-15.
Cal Raleigh has been slow to start the year, as has last year’s midseason pickup Josh Naylor and star outfielder Julio Rodriguez.
This might be a good game to take the under, the Cardinals haven’t been hitting the ball great either, but the home-field edge is enough for me to take St. Louis.
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