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CHICAGO — As they dive headfirst into the 2019 season this week in Arizona, Cubs manager Joe Maddon and White Sox counterpart Rick Renteria are entering crossroads of sorts.
Maddon, coming off a 95-win season and four straight postseason appearances, needs to win to keep his job. Renteria, coming off 100 losses with most of the same nucleus returning, needs to stop losing to keep his sanity.
There may be vastly different expectations for the Cubs and Sox, but fans on both sides of town want to see one thing: improvement.
It’s up to Maddon and Renteria, the yin and yang of Chicago managers, to make sure that happens.
Maddon’s uncertain future
Entering the final year of a five-year deal without a contract extension, Maddon might find his seat a bit toasty if the Cubs get off to a poor start.
No one would’ve imagined he still would be without a deal in 2019 after winning the 2016 World Series to end the Cubs’ epic drought, but these are strange times in Wrigleyville, where participation trophies no longer are in vogue.
Maddon has an impressive .541 winning percentage in his 15 years in the majors. If you take away his first two seasons with the Rays in 2006 and ‘07, when they lost 101 and 96 games, that percentage shoots up to .568 — an average of 92 wins a year.
Maddon’s winning percentage ranks 49th all time according to baseball-reference.com, just ahead of Hall of Famers Joe Cronin (.540) and Leo Durocher (.540), who until Maddon was considered the best Cubs manager of the last 70 years.
But Durocher never won anything in Chicago, and his legacy remains the ‘69 Cubs team that collapsed in September and became beloved for “almost” winning.
Part of Durocher’s appeal was his outsized personality, which often grated on Cubs players. Maddon has a ring and those four postseason appearances in his four years on the North Side, but apparently that’s not enough for management to make a judgment about him.
Though he may be a lame-duck manager, Maddon doesn’t seem particularly worried.
“We’re all lame-duck, aren’t we?” Maddon said during his trip to Chicago for the Cubs Convention. “I’ve been on one-year contracts for many years, but actually I’m on the last year of a five-year contract, so I’m pretty fortunate. I don’t worry about it. I don’t even think about it unless you ask me about it.
“As you know, I’m pretty self-confident, and I feel good about what we’ve done and where we’re going in the future.”
The contract becoming a distraction is a possibility, and unless the Cubs get off to a hot start, it will be mentioned a time or two no matter how much Maddon or Theo Epstein tries to downplay it.
The players know the deal.
“I don’t pay any attention to that stuff,” reliever Pedro Strop said. “But Joe is one of the best managers in the league, so I’m pretty sure he’s going to have a job. If not with us, it’ll be with somebody, so there’s nothing to be worried about.”
Strop was involved in one of Maddon’s most controversial decisions last year. After taking over as closer for the injured Brandon Morrow, Strop was allowed to bat after the Cubs took a one-run lead in the 10th inning of a Sept. 13 makeup game against the Nationals.
Strop hit a rocket toward third but pulled a hamstring while trying to beat out a double play, sidelining him for the rest of the stretch run.
Maddon was eviscerated on Twitter and talk radio for letting Strop hit for himself. He had to explain his rationale again last month during a question-and-answer session with fans at the Cubs Convention.
“Had he been thrown out at first base and not pulled a hamstring, nobody would be asking these questions,” Maddon said. “It’s just one of those things that happens. Injuries occur. I learned from Marcel Lachemann many years ago, and I totally believe this: You don’t treat them like China dolls. They’re well-trained athletes. It’s one of those situations that happens. I really do believe it was the right thing to do in that moment. … And retrospectively, it had no impact on the race whatsoever.
“Our bullpen, the guys we picked up, did really well. When things occur in a game, you only have that one shot in that moment to make that decision, and a lot of times when it doesn’t work out, people don’t like that. And that’s an outcome-bias situation.
“If we all knew what was going to happen before, you might have chosen a different route.”
Maddon might be the best manager we’ve ever seen in Chicago. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned from Twitter, it’s that no manager is smarter than the fan watching from his couch.
Time running out for Renteria?
While Maddon is one of the most successful mangers of his era, Renteria has been one of the least. He has a .416 winning percentage in three years of managing, including one with the Cubs, and never has come close to finishing .500.
He has enjoyed five months with a winning record out of 18: June and August 2014 with the Cubs and April and September 2017 and August 2018 with the Sox.
Renteria’s winning percentage is 29th-worst all time according to baseball-reference.com. But he has led two rebuilding teams, so it’s unfair to lump him in with that group just yet.
The Sox haven’t judged Renteria on his record, and they quietly gave him an extension last spring. It wasn’t until November that general manager Rick Hahn revealed Renteria’s contract runs through 2020, a year longer than his original deal.
The Sox believe his teaching ability is perfect for the rebuild, and Renteria has a great relationship with his young players.
But at some point the Sox have to start winning, and Year 3 of the rebuild will be an important one for Renteria, with or without the still-unsigned Manny Machado.
The American League Central comprises the Indians and four rebuilding teams, so the Sox should shoot for at least .500. Another 95- to 100-loss season could bring questions about whether Renteria is the right man for the job, regardless of whether he’s signed for another year.
Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito and some of the other kids have to show signs of becoming the players they’ve been hyped as. Eloy Jimenez has to be the real deal when he arrives this year. Ditto Dylan Cease.
“The guys we do have are real — I’ll continue to repeat that — they are real talent,” Renteria said. “We’re getting closer. The guys at the major-league level, combined with the guys that are coming through and hopefully will be with us soon, will put us in a real good place.”
For the Sox to improve drastically, first baseman Jose Abreu, entering his walk year, must rebound from injuries and a subpar year to prove he’s still an integral part of the future. Otherwise there’s no sense in keeping him around.
Renteria’s biggest task will be persuading Abreu to be the designated hitter more often now that Yonder Alonso, a better defensive player, is on the roster. Renteria admitted Abreu has “always disliked” the idea of playing DH but seems to be coming around.
Renteria’s second-most difficult task could be convincing Sox fans he can deftly handle a bullpen with two talented late-inning options, Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colome.
Asked by a fan at SoxFest if the Sox could win 80 games, Renteria was his usual optimistic self.
“I do think the back end of our bullpen has been tremendously increased in terms of its ability to close out ballgames,” Renteria replied. “We’ll still manage the situations to give us the best outputs, but we have to play clean baseball, and that’s what we’re striving to do. (Eighty wins) is very possible, absolutely.”
It’s not much to shoot for, but you have to start somewhere. Rest assured we should know a lot more about Renteria’s long-term future by the end of Year 3.