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Every year I get too fancy when it comes to March Madness and filling out my bracket.
Last year it was Arizona, which was bounced in the first round by Buffalo. And I completely botched the West Region, which was paced by Michigan and Florida State. I had Gonzaga and North Carolina going to the Elite 8.
This year, however, I’m just going with chalk. I’m sorry, but no one is beating Duke. Period.
Here’s my breakdown for each region:
EAST
Speaking of Duke, the Blue Devils have a pretty easy path until they get to the Elite 8 against second-seeded Michigan State.
Coach Tom Izzo’s squad will give the Blue Devils a run for their money, thanks to a potent offense. The Spartans led the Big Ten in scoring, 3-point shooting and rebounding this year.
If it wasn’t for Zion Williamson, it’d be the Spartans coming out of the East, not Duke.
If you’re looking for a upset pick in this region, look no further than Belmont.
It’s important to remember that a First Four participant has won its first-round game each year since 2011, which was when the First Four was first introduced. Last year Syracuse made it all the way to the Sweet 16. Belmont has the potential to do just that with LSU playing without its head coach, Will Wade, who’s suspended due to a wire tapping scandal.
Belmont is an at-large team out of the Ohio Valley after all. Watch out.
But back to Duke and Michigan State. Like I said, the Spartans don’t have Williamson. Plain and simple.
WEST
If Syracuse pulls either a seven seed or 10 seed in this region, and not the eight, they’re playing for a shot to get into the Final Four. While the Orange have struggled at times this season, they have some nice wins on their resume. Alas, they’re the eight seed and will face Gonzaga in the second round.
The Zags are too good, especially if Syracuse senior point guard Frank Howard is still suspended. So good in fact, they’ll play their way into the Elite 8 after taking down a red-hot Florida State squad in the Sweet 16.
Before I jump to one of my biggest bracket breakers of the tournament, Buffalo, I want to note that Murray State is a squad that shouldn’t be taken lightly. They’re one of my two 12-seeded upset picks. Ja Morant is the real deal and a name to remember in June.
But the team to really pay attention to is six-seeded Buffalo.
Nate Oats is doing a heck of a job up in Western New York and this three-loss Bulls squad isn’t a team to be taken lightly. Texas Tech and Michigan will both give Buffalo fits, but this is a talented squad led by CJ Massinburg. They’re a trendy upset pick this year, but also one you don’t want to leave out of your bracket.
However, all good things must come to an end.
Gonzaga boasts one of the best offenses in the nation and a pair of possible All-Americans in Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Sure, the Zags lost to Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference final, but it was just the kick in the pants they needed ahead of the NCAA tournament.
SOUTH
This isn’t last year’s Virginia team. Trust me.
The Cavaliers can play defense and shoot the lights out of the gym. That’ll make them an extremely tough out this year.
Virginia has a cakewalk to the Elite 8.
Oregon is my second of two 12-seeded upset picks, beating Wisconsin in the first round. But like Murray State in the West, the Ducks aren’t even the real upset pick to watch. That goes to Cincinnati.
The Bearcats are massively underseeded after winning the American Athletic Conference tournament and boasting wins against tournament teams Houston, Ole Miss and Temple on their resume.
But here’s the kicker, Cincinnati plays close to home the first weekend, giving them an edge against No. 2 seed Tennessee in the second round and has the ability to play with a superior team in Purdue thanks to its molasses-like pace.
The Cavaliers can beat the Bearcats at their own game, however, ending Cincy’s run and sending Tony Bennett’s squad into the Final Four a year removed from last season’s massacre.
Oh, and before I forget, watch out for 13th-seeded UC Irvine. Kansas State’s top player, Dean Wade, is doubtful to play in the NCAA tournament with a foot injury. Anteaters are one and done, losing to fellow double-digit seed Oregon in the second round.
MIDWEST
After some mayhem in the West and South, the Midwest is pretty chalky.
North Carolina and Kentucky get a nice rematch in the Elite 8, with Roy Williams’ squad getting the upper hand this time.
The only real surprises are Auburn and Iowa State each reaching the Sweet 16.
But is that even really that big of a surprise? Both teams are red-hot off of their conference tournaments.
FINAL FOUR
I know. I know. Four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. It’s only happened once, which, I guess, this in a sense means I got fancy?
There just aren’t too many big threats as lower seeds. And Duke is better than Michigan State and North Carolina has already beaten Kentucky once.
Duke-Gonzaga is yet another rematch, a game the Blue Devils lost by just two points early in the season. But this time around I don’t think we’ll see the same result.
Duke is red-hot.
Virginia has already beaten North Carolina once this season. The Cavs’ defense and 3-point shooting is the difference once again.
Third time’s the charm for Virginia? I don’t think so. This one’s going to be a fun one to watch, and a game the Cavs could win if they’re on from behind the arc, but the difference is Williamson.
Did you see him in his first game back against Syracuse in the ACC Tournament? Holy cow.
The Blue Devils will be cutting down the nets on April 8 in Minneapolis.
